Will the unfortunate passing away from MGP doyen Shashikala Kakodkar, an icon of a different kind of genteel politics, lead to the hastening of the process of the BJP MGP alliance being finalized for the 2017 elections? Or will this lead to a consolidation of forces of the BBSM and those spearheading the language agitation, to win this election in memory of the departed leader.
Even before the passing away of Tai the relationship between the MGP and the BBSM was partly ideological but mostly of political convenience. The BBSM, which launched its political avatar the Goa Suraksha Manch, did so with the sole purpose of damaging the BJP on the language issue. The MGP, which is looking at the 2017 assembly election, as an opportunity for political consolidation saw an excellent chance to leverage the BBSM and dangle the threat of aligning with them, to extract maximum returns from its alliance negotiations with the BJP.
What may change with Shashikala Kakodkar’s passing away, is the emotional catalyst for the BBSM which will now take that additional leap to ensure that it stamps its presence in 2017. For BBSM, notwithstanding the support of the Shiv Sena, which is absolutely insignificant, the real deal is the MGP’s support.
MGP which will now be more of a Dhavalikar brother’ party in letter and spirit will have to carefully balance all sides and take a reasoned call on which way to go. An alliance with a BJP which is more vulnerable than in 2012, is important for MGP. But the contentious issue of grants to English schools, which MGP has opposed, will be an even bigger issue after Shashikala Kakokdkar’s death. On the other hand, it may want to look at the emotional opportunity of going whole hog with the BBSM and push the emotive card of not just vernacular education and grants but even the contentious issue of Marathi to be included as the second official language of Goa.
The MGP does find itself in an enviable position with the BJP having to do all the running. There is of course a thinking in a section of the BJP, importantly, within the camp of Mr Nitin Gadkari, the election in charge of Goa, to make another last ditch attempt to get at least a section of the minorities to support the party. The Chief Minister’s new approach to the MoI issue where he has now started speaking of giving the choice of language of instruction to parents, is in line with that thinking. If the BJP persists with that line of thinking, then the unthinkable event of Nitin Gadkari actually playing tough with the MGP, may even happen. In that situation, MGP will exercise its immediate option of teaming with the Goa Suraksha Manch (the political arm of the BBSM) and fight the elections on Tai’s memory.
Either way, her passing will have political fallout and may determine equations within the “parivar”. Sudhin Dhavalikar may yet have a political compulsion to keep Tai’s legacy alive by making the 2017 elections all about her, and in doing that he may not find himself in sync with the BJP.
All options are possible and the next few weeks are going to be both significant and interesting.
