The BJP, by announcing that it will contest 37 seats and back three Independents, have all but said good bye to pre-poll alliance with the MGP.
The MGP seems to be having a minor side issue with the Goa Suraksha Manch and the Goa Praja Party over the Bicholim seat but its alliance with the Goa Suraksha Manch is all but sealed, if not signed. The BJP has cause for worry as the MGP GSM alliance will have an impact on seats outside the MGP stronghold of Ponda, like Bicholim and Pernem. The BJP therefore has opted for the acquisition route since the merger or partnership route has failed. After getting Mauvin Godinho and Pandurang Madkaikar from the Congress, it has now set its eyes on Congressman Pravin Zantye in Mayem.
The Congress, on the other hand, has shunned the alliance route despite sections within the party wanting a larger coalition with parties like Goa Forward and the NCP. Meanwhile it has also not yet responded to latest overtures on the part of some key NCP candidates in Salcete, who would rather contest on a Congress ticket. At the same time it faces prospects of sabotage and rebellion in Cuncolim, in Benaulim if it has an understanding with Churchill Alemao and even in Nuvem where Alexio Sequeira is lobbying with the party high command against wishes of the GPCC president Luizinho Faleiro, to get a ticket, in order to sabotage the chances of Faleiro’s candidate Wilfred D’Sa, aka Babashan.
At the same time, with the initial euphoria of AAP waning in many constituencies, with a gap between its social media hype and hollow aggressiveness not matching ground realities, the Congress finds itself pitch forked in a situation where it can call on old loyalties, in a population mix in Salcete which sees itself as the only region which can challenge the ruling party. But there’s work to be done, as is the case for all parties but there is no debate that in an election where the Congress was finding itself difficult to get off the starting block, it is now in the mix seriously.
The BJP’s main game plan will start after the election results are out. The big maths that everyone in this election must keep in mind is this. Unlike any other party or combination, the BJP, even with 14 seats and a government at the centre, can form the government if it’s the single largest party. That is the time when it will pull forces which are in the election fray, for the sole purpose of being on the ruling side. If one actually asks all the non-Congress anti-BJP parties – on paper, (MGP, NCP, Goa Forward, United Goans of Babush Monseratte and all Independents) if they are willing to give a public undertaking that they will not back the BJP either to form its government or strengthen it, it is doubtful if a single undertaking will come forth. In an ideal situation, this should have meant that Goans who want the BJP out should gravitate towards the Congress. But Goa is not an ideal world, in fact far from it. And this is a world in which the BJP thrives in.
Finally this election will be about two people. Manohar Parrikar and Luizinho Faleiro. For the Defence Minister, a victory and government formation is non-negotiable. Much more than in 2012, 2017, will be a test of Mr Parrikar’s leadership like never before in his political career. Apart from his stakes in Goa, he needs to deliver Goa to re-establish and firm up his political hold at the center, because Goa may be a small state but is a significant part of Prime Minister Modi’s India conquest, which cannot tolerate gaps in the saffron map of India.
For Luizinho Faleiro, it’s a test to see of his success in the North East was a fluke or whether he indeed does have a magic wand to deliver Congress victories from impossible situations. A resurgent performance will make his leadership unquestionable.
But there will be no clear winner in 2017. And that itself may be Goa’s loss.
