Seven States will be heading for Assembly elections by December next year. Some of the States like Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand will have to elect their new Assembly before the end of March next year while Himachal Pradesh in October and Gujarat by December 2022. All these States are crucial for the world’s largest political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after their debacle in the high-pitched and high-decibel claims that they were winning West Bengal.
The May 2 result did give the BJP some solace in Assam and Puducherry but the loss in West Bengal has completely decimated the state party unit apart from demoralising the BJP Central unit. In political circles it does not augur well for the party which aims to return to power in the 2024 general election. The only solace the BJP, as a party, has is that Congress the national level opposition has become too weak and is entangled into its own internal quagmire of leadership issue.
West Bengal BJP president Dilip Ghosh soon after the poll results of West Bengal was out claiming that 37 BJP party workers were killed in the post-poll violence. Despite a hue and cry from the BJP, no concrete actions were taken by the BJP except condemning the violence over national media and television debates. The “karyakartas” (party workers of BJP) felt left out by their own party and this led many to either abandon their houses or shift to other locations for their own safety.
Meanwhile in an another recent development, the West Bengal BJP unit announced setting up a disciplinary action committee to take necessary action against political leaders deemed to be “going against the party” and the announcement came against the backdrop of BJP national vice-president Mukul Roy leaving the party to join his former political party the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Roy had joined BJP in 2017 after 19 years of being with the ruling Mamata Banerjee-led TMC. Roy’s exit had created as much noise as his entry into the national party. His son Subhranshu, a former legislator, also returned to the TMC fold and the father-son duo were welcomed back by Mamata Banerjee who claimed that Roy was threatened by probe agencies but could not stay in the BJP since the party “does not allow dignity and peace”. Roy was accused in the 2016 Narada sting operation case, along with his party colleagues. Mukul Roy had been accused by the same TMC when he joined BJP by saying that he wanted the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) off his back by joining BJP. It will be interesting to watch if CBI now registers or adds his name for investigation into the 2016 scam.
With the approaching Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, the largest State in India, politically, BJP has to ensure that there is no repeat of West Bengal. Efforts are on by the party to induct the disgruntled members of Congress. But it is a double edged sword and it needs to be handled with extreme caution. We have seen the outcome in West Bengal recently.
In a highly politically motivated State of Uttar Pradesh it will also be critical for the BJP not to annoy their own party members and relegate them to oblivion by giving more leverage to the “outsiders” who are joining BJP from other political parties in search of greener pastures. The recent induction of former Congressman Jitin Prasad in Uttar Pradesh and thawing of relationships with Shiv Sena in recent past is showing that BJP is now willing to bend a bit and allow others to come in only to keep the opposition weak at the central level.
Debate is on in political circles whether the BJP has become a washing machine. In fact in February this year, earlier than the West Bengal elections, the TMC Chief Mamata Banerjee while speaking to a private TV channel had accused the BJP of being a washing machine party which “turns black people and money into white”. With election time approaching fast, including in Goa, the BJP now cannot afford to take steps on whims and fancies. It has to be calculated if they want to retain power. Also, it is a golden opportunity for opposition parties to shelve their political differences and egos and form a united opposition to take the bull by its horns.
