There is another side to the Congress story which will play out in the next 24 to 48 hours, the choice of the leader of its legislature party, who will be the potential Chief Minister.
With 17 seats in its kitty, and one independent ‘officially’ backed by them, the choice of its next Chief Minister designate has become even more complex. And it is important to note here is that there is a big difference between ending up at 15 and doing so at 17. At 15, the Congress had a 50:50 chance of taking a shot at power. At 17 it stands a real chance of forming a government. Therefore the Congress now needs to pick a person who will be an effective Chief Minister in a coalition government and not merely a leader of the opposition, and this is where it will be unfortunately dictated by the pulls and pressures of coalition politics rather than giving the position to the person who seems to be having the Midas touch with getting Congress close to governance in many states, Luizinho Faleiro. The next few days will tell us, if Faleiro will get rewarded for rebuilding the Congress organisation, getting the hitherto non-existent blocks to be formed before building memberships, and virtually touring the entire state looking for potential local leaders who could be candidates.
As Faleiro worked on the party manifesto, the charge-sheet against the BJP and delved into several other issues, the senior leadership was skeptical of the Congress getting more than 3 to 5 seats. Therefore its 17 seats, is not an endorsement of individual satraps like the Rane’s or Ravi Naik or others but of the people’s need to prevent the BJP from coming to power.
What will play out though, in the run up to the choice of the CLP leader, is not whether, Digambar Kamat, or Pratapsingh Rane contributed to the Congress’ pan Goa performance, (which they did not), but whether they will be acceptable to both Sudhin Dhavalikar and Vijai Sardesai and the independents the Congress is eyeing. Sardesai’s Goa Forward has been the giant killer of these elections having accounted for two ministers, and Damu Naik, yet again. But Sardesai’s differences with Luizinho Faleiro are at its peak, with the Congress fielding a candidate in Fatorda, and Sardesai backing an independent candidate Cipru Fernandes in Nevelim, Faleiro’s constituency. Sardesai is not going to back Faleiro as CM by a long shot – at least not yet and actually root for Digambar Kamat who, along with Pratapsingh Rane, were mooting a pre-poll alliance with Goa Forward. Meanwhile, the man for all seasons, Kamat, and Sudin Dhavlikar have been in government together. And let us not forget, Sardesai, Dhavalikar and Kamat form a comfortable caste-based troika, which often dictates the course of politics, more than what we think.
As these combinations play out, the Congress as well as the Goa Forward specially, and even MGP if it wants to be away from the BJP, must ask what its aim truly is.
The delay and indecision over an alliance will give the BJP, waiting in the wings, to use all the power it has to cobble up a a majority by uniting all smaller parties and fringe players. As Sardesai told Herald, ‘We are not duty bound to prop up a Congress government”. But is he or is he not duty bound to see that what is good for Goa, beyond the actions of the Congress to the detriment of Goa Forward.
Hopefully in the next few days, some of these questions will be answered.
