With the Zilla Panchayat polls notified, it could now be just a matter of time before the cracks in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) alliance widen further. Neither party appears to be willing to give the other an inch. Yet, both appear to be waiting for the other to make the first move to end the relationship. The BJP workers are adamant, and have been for some weeks now, that the party break up the alliance with the MGP, while the MGP, only too aware of this, has been working across the State to strengthen its base.
A month back, after the BJP Chintan Baitak a party MLA had said that in all likelihood BJP would go it alone in the ZP polls. The MGP had responded by saying that the alliance is for 10 years, but that the party was ready to fight the ZP polls on its own if it had to. Neither of the parties, in the past 30 days, has taken that step to dissolve the alliance.
Now, by sending a letter to the BJP seeking to contest 19 seats in the ZP polls as an alliance partner, MGP has perhaps asked for a much larger share than it could expect to get and hence could be hastening the process of the breakup. The regional party has three seats in the 40 member assembly that works out to not even 7.5 per cent of the strength of the legislature, and in seeking 19 seats in the ZP elections wants almost 20 per cent of the total number of ZP seats in the State. This is unlikely to be acceptable to the BJP that has not yet responded to the demand. The BJP’s public response instead has been that the MGP should sit across the table and discuss this with it and not send letters. The strain in the relationship is visible and the party functionaries are doing nothing to hide it.
A breakup of the alliance now won’t affect the government – neither its survival nor its functioning. The BJP has the numbers, a majority of its own, and also has Independents and the Goa Vikas Party (GVP) in the coalition. The government is comfortably placed to complete its term and will do it without any hiccup.
But, the ZP polls are turning out to be a test for the BJP in planning its future strategy in Goa. With the ZP elections being held on party lines for the first time in Goa, despite opposition to this from political parties and civil society, the ensuing polls would be the best test for the BJP by which to gauge public support for the party when it stands on its own without the crutches of an alliance partner. It is pertinent that it is only the BJP that wants local elections on party lines, with all other opposing this.
After gaining a majority of its own in the 2012 Assembly elections and then winning both the Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 polls, the BJP would surely want to determine its solo strength in the State. It’s unlikely to risk the assembly elections as a laboratory for this. It is the ZP polls that could be the experiment.
The BJP has little to lose in this ZP poll. It is in power and in local elections, the electorate is always more likely to vote for candidates of the party that is in government. By going it alone it stands a better chance of controlling the two district panchayats which can be of immense help to the party in the 2017 assembly elections.
There is also more riding for the BJP in this ZP election. In case of a breakup in the alliance, it is the BJP that will stand to benefit more than the MGP. The former party has an established cadre in the State spread across even in MGP bastions and can then strengthen itself in all constituencies. On the other hand, the MGP will have to begin the exercise of spreading its base, while ensuring that the constituencies it currently holds are not neglected. It has few leaders and workers and their attention would be divided. In such a case the party organisation would stretched and it could fare badly in the polls, weakening it considerably.
