BJP’s North Goa bastion may be breached
If politics, like war, is all about bastions, then the breaching of a bastion, is a game changer in electoral politics, as it is in war.
The shifting sands of real politic has made Shripad Naik, BJP’s custodian of North Goa and a bet as safe as a morning pao in Goa, depend completely on the crutches of Parrikar to cut through serious anti incumbency and the entry of Ravi Naik which has turned the caste advantage of the BJP on its head.
And yes, it is not early days yet. These election dates, especially with the Goa elections five days earlier than its earlier date of April 17, has reduced this from a half marathon to a straight sprint with no build up. And with Ravi Naik as the sure shot Congress candidate, will mean that Manohar Parrikar will be forced to spend far more time in North Goa to pull Shripad, no great friend of his, out of the woods.
This is how the fight will play out across Bardez, Tiswadi, Sattari, Pernem and Bicholim plus the crucial assembly segment of Priol, the only part of Ponda taluka which falls in the North Goa parliamentary constituency. And it is in Priol, where Ravi Naik will cause the first dent. A certain Govind Gawde , who fought as a rebel and got almost 10,000 votes in the last assembly elections, is a blind Ravi Naik loyalist. Add to that around 1500 votes of Daku Madkaikar, the BJP has a fight on its hands. There is more trouble brewing in Priol. Some prominent BJP workers each with dedicated chunk of votes like Satish Madkaikar, Sanjay Naik and Pradip Volvoikar have been marginalised by Deepak Dhavlikar and are upset with the BJP for not standing up for them. This assumes significance, because in the larger world parliamentary elections are all about giving the nation a leadership, but in small pockets, politics is about day to day ego building and bashing. The road to Delhi has to pass through millions of village roads like those of Priol.
In Bardez, the Tivim and Saligao segments are the only ones where a lead for the BJP is ensured but will that be enough. Porvorim MLA Rohan Khaunte’s relationship with Ravi Naik could be a factor, though Khaunte has not been a vocal critic of the Chief Minister either. In Calangute, the BJP could suffer a huge dent because of two factors. Michael Lobo has several reasons to be displeased with the BJP because it has attempted to back an alternate power centre, the Calangute sarpanch Joseph Sequiera, who worked with Lobo to extract this assembly seat from Congress’ crutches. In a double irony, Sequiera has old links with the Congress and has a predominantly Catholic constituency getting out of its honeymoon with Parrikar to consider. In Siolim, the powerful Dayanand Mandrekar, shares very strong non political linkages which reportedly extend to various alleged businesses that dominate this coastal belt.
In Tiswadi, the Parrikar factor will give the BJP a head start in Panjim and Taleigao, inspite of the Babush Monserrate factor but this will be offset in St Cruz where Babush will ensure a Congress lead. Meanwhile St Andre is as good as gone where Vishnu Wagh will fight for his prestige to ensure that the BJP doesn’t lead in his constituency
Shripad Naik would have hoped to be a tad more comfortable in the Bicholim taluka but it isn’t quite smooth sailing. Two men whose support the BJP could have done with are going to work for Ravi. They are- the suspended cop Subhash Kinalkar and Upendra Gaonkar, the general secretary of the Bhandari samaj association. In Sanquelim, though Dr Pramod Sawant has a base, Yashwant Markar of the Rudreshwar devasthan could counter this.
Sattari is still under the hold of the Ranes and will play out in Poriem and Valpoi though with lesser intensity.
The tipping point therefore could be Pernem, the only belt where Shripad Naik needs to and can get a lead big enough to offset setbacks in other Talukas.
It is therefore going to be a massive challenge for Parrikar to do the following. Minimise the lead of the Congress in setback areas and ensure massive leads in Tivim, Pernem and the city parts of Tiswadi. The world has indeed changed for Shripad Bhau.
