After months of intense rumours and speculations, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar finally pulled the plug on the NDA Alliance and joined hands with the Opposition RJD and its allies to form a ‘Mahagathbandhan’ or Grand Alliance. As he snapped ties with the BJP, one question doing the rounds in newsrooms and social media platforms is this: Can Nitish Kumar be pitched as a prospective Prime Ministerial candidate of the Opposition for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections?
While it’s too early to answer this question, his action of dumping the BJP has certainly come as a morale-booster for the opposition, still smarting from the fall of the MVA government in Maharashtra in July this year. The Mahagathbandhan provides the much-needed tactical and psychological booster shot and talking points for the national opposition bloc. It can provide good tidings for the opposition parties, which are currently battling their own internal problems.
For one, if Kumar does emerge as the unanimous choice as the Opposition’s Prime Ministerial Candidate for the General Elections, his Mahagathbandhan has all the ingredients to defeat the National Democratic Alliance comprising the BJP: resources, social engineering, caste calculations, and opposition face. After all, the RJD’s Muslim-Yadav support base, JD(U)’s support among Kurmis and Mahadalits, and support of the Congress and Left Parties can deal a body blow to the NDA in Bihar. It’s a no-brainer that Nitish’s act of dumping the BJP will have a big impact in the 2024 General Elections, which the NDA swept winning 39 out of 40 seats in 2019. It’s important to note that what’s ranged against the BJP is a deadly combination: the Left, the ultra-Left, the centre, the backward, the extremely backward, the Dalit, and the minority.
The ‘Modi Wave’ in 2019, which brought the BJP back to power at the Centre with a record 303 seats, was mainly on account of the terror attack in Pulwama and India’s subsequent punitive action at Balakot in Pakistan. This time around, with severe and growing economic distress in India, there is a question mark on how many seats the BJP can win in 2024. Mere Hindu-Muslim polarisation caused by domestic factors, in the absence of a Pakistan angle, cannot help the BJP much. In any case, anti-Muslim politics cannot consolidate the Hindu vote bank in Bihar as it does in UP.
Kumar’s actions in Bihar have sent a strong message that the BJP is not invincible. While the BJP may be astute in forging alliances and forming governments, Kumar dumping the BJP has sent a message to the opposition that if it makes the right moves, the NDA can be beaten at its own game. In fact, Kumar as the opposition candidate has a lot going for him. He has a formidable record in governance and social welfare. During his tenure, Nitish launched a range of schemes for the welfare of women and girls, often dovetailing them with his government’s schemes for Mahadalits and EBCs. He introduced a game-changing 50 per cent reservation for women in panchayats, and last year reserved 33 per cent seats in medical and engineering colleges for women. The Bihar government has also given a 33 per cent quota to women in government jobs, 35 per cent in police jobs, and 50 per cent in primary teaching jobs at the panchayat level.
By ditching the BJP, Nitish Kumar hopes to ensure his immediate survival in Bihar with a tie-up with the RJD. The BJP had made Nitish Kumar the chief minister after the 2020 Bihar polls, despite his JD(U) being the junior partner in the ruling alliance in Bihar. The idea was to expand the BJP’s base at the cost of the JD(U), and even Nitish Kumar’s own popularity. The saffron party wanted to have its own chief minister soon.
The divorce with the BJP may also renew Nitish Kumar’s old rivalry with PM Narendra Modi. In 2013, when he was in an alliance with the NDA and it seemed that the BJP would appoint the Gujarat Chief Minister as its prime ministerial candidate, he had asked the BJP to choose a ‘secular and acceptable candidate. When the party refused to pay heed to him, he broke away with an attack on Modi, only to return to the NDA in 2017. Now with the Bihar Chief Minister and the Prime Minister again on the opposite sides, it may mark a new turn in the rivalry with national ramifications.
The exit of JDU from the NDA also strengthens the argument that the BJP’s expansionist mission ends up clashing with the interests of its allies, prompting many of them, including Shiv Sena, AGP, Akali Dal, TDP, MGP, PDP, to either quit NDA or get swallowed up. With many regional parties from the opposition bloc like TMC and AAP facing the wrath of the Investigation Agencies, the Mahagathbandhan is a boost to larger opposition play. Within the opposition, the Mahagathbandhan once again underscores the fact that it is powerful regional parties that continue to remain a dominant force, and this could have important implications for opposition unity.
The fall of the NDA government in Bihar has come as a shot in the arm for the opposition. The revival of the Mahagathbandhan will surely raise hopes among opposition parties, even as obstacles remain. This will infuse new hope among Opposition parties at the national level, who have so far remained disunited and dispirited.
It is too early to begin talking about whether Nitish Kumar can be a rallying point for the opposition.
(Anish Esteves is a freelance writer based in Mumbai)
