In 2015, 196 governments signed the legally binding Paris Climate Agreement. The objective was to contain ‘the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels’ and attempt ‘to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.’ The latter – a good to have – soon became the objective when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that crossing 1.5C would unleash far severe Climate Change impacts. According to the United Nations, ‘the first 12-month period to exceed 1.5°C as an average was February 2023 – January 2024’. Though, they claim all is not lost, because ‘The first months with an average temperature that was more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average occurred during 2015-16’. In both cases, the El Niño added to human induced Climate Change.
The adjectives used with El Niño are ‘strong, naturally occurring’ and ‘boosted by El Niño’ implying El Niño while being a contributor to Climate Change is impervious to manmade greenhouses gases unlike other aspects of climate patterns. This is cavalierly mindboggling. Recent studies suggest global heating ‘may be leading to stronger El Niño events’. This uncertainty reflects difficulty in creating models.
The business-as-usual approach continues while parts of India melts in 51C temperatures, and the Papua New Guinea Prime Minister says ‘We have faced extraordinary weather patterns and changes from dryness to wetness,’ post a landslide killing 2000 people.
Per IPCC ‘it is now an established fact that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes since 1850, in particular for temperature extremes. Evidence of observed changes and attribution to human influence has strengthened for several types of extremes since AR5, in particular for extreme precipitation, droughts, tropical cyclones and compound extremes (including fire weather).’
Doing more of the same to prevent Climate Change is akin to the cartoon of someone using a leaky bucket to decant water from a leaking boat. Desperate times call for inspired methods and leadership.
Covid is a case in point. It was a desperate moment for the planet. There was no information about the virus and its treatment; people were dying; government, including medical infrastructure, were unprepared; but it called for some tough decisions. The tough decision was the sudden lockdown.
This unpreparedness and sudden lockdown caused a socio-economic disaster. Millions died and others were rendered unemployed. The poor and elderly were most impacted. People and the global economy are still recovering from this pandemic. Per a 2023 research paper titled ‘The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth’, global GDP declined 3.0 percent in 2020. A 2020 Cambridge University Judge Business School report on the global economic impact of Covid-19 forecasts the economic loss could range from USD 3 trillion to USD 82 trillion.
Climate Change poses a similar catastrophe. Per a 2024 SwissRe, global annual estimate of economic losses from floods, tropical cyclones, winter storms in Europe and severe thunderstorms is USD 200 billion, which will only increase. Infact, a 2022 S&P report states ‘physical climate risks could expose 3.3%, 4%, and 4.5% of world GDP to losses by 2050’ depending on what action nations take.
The harm that humans continue causing themselves needs drastic intervention especially considering the issue is over three decades old.
Studies indicate a reduction in air and water pollution during the lockdown period. Carbon emissions also fell.
There is a lesson from the Pandemic to be learnt and applied to combat Climate Change. The lesson is implementing a planned slow-down of economic activity.
The truth is that many ideas that have been executed have been done to improve individual and social wellbeing. Therefore, these have been piecemeal and not implemented in scale.
For example, 4-day week and work-from-home have been around for some time. If these become government and business policy, it will reduce energy consumption. By reducing production hours, and not increasing output, factories will reduce emissions. There were also attempts at regulating personal four-wheeler use with even and odd license numbers. This too can be scaled up and regularised to having car free days this could coincide with 4-day weeks. Encouraging cycle use as an alternative to cars is another option that has to be energised.
Once this has percolated completely, work days can be reduced further if necessary. The planned cooling of supply and demand will ensure economic fallout is limited. Governments will have to plan for the needs of the elderly, farmers, poor, daily wagers including small vendors.
Taxes will be one way to finance this attempt to save mankind. Governments can levy a special tax on citizens during the period of gradual phasing-in of the slow down. Taxes on the personal wealth of billionaires will need to be increased. Given that economic cooling may decrease salary and corporate revenue, taxes on these will need to be reduced.
Besides the monetary and fiscal side, is the provision of infrastructure to make this system work. Good internet connectivity, installation of individual renewable energy units to supplement potential decrease in regular power-supply come immediately to mind.
On the social side, creating community-based support-systems to assist with increase in personal time is a potential requirement.
Climate Change is being fuelled by the greed for more. Paradoxically, the alternative to this has not been less but so-called environmental-friendly more. The pandemic taught us we can forego greed when survival is at stake, and that unplanned implementation exacerbates already difficult situations. George Santayana said “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” By ignoring the lessons of the Pandemic are we condemning ourselves to using a leaky bucket?
(Samir Nazareth is an author and writes on socio-economic and environmental issues)
