The 10th UN Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report released recently should set alarm bells ringing with anyone concerned with the welfare of coming generations. Global emissions have been rising by 1.5% per year for the past decade with a predicted temperature rise of 40C by 2100 with devastating consequences. The target increase was 1.50C by 2100. This is unattainable; because even with (unlikely) total compliance by all countries, the increase will double this target by then. In fact, an increase of 3.20C is now expected by 2030. And Mother Nature’s fury is already upon us.
The regional council in Venice rejected proposals to introduce measures to tackle climate change. That same day, Venice was hit by unprecedented floods. In the face of Trump’s denials of the existence of the issue of climate change, California was devastated by wildfires. Australian bush fires resulted in anti-government demonstrations by thousands of Greta Thunbergs for not doing enough to control climate change. Temperature increases will cause flooding in low lying areas and affect 300 million people by 2050. Not only are rich nations not doing enough, with runaway GHG emissions, but some even deny a problem exists. The US pulled out of the Paris agreement; and a sharp spike in CO2 emissions followed in 2018. India is one of the three countries meeting its Paris agreement standards (Nationally Determined Contributions) but is criticised for setting itself pretty low standards.
The journal “Nature Climate Change” published a study which examined the impact of climate change on women in Asia and Africa. This report confirms that the poor will be hardest hit (surprise surprise!) and that women will be the most affected. Drought has reduced the horseshoe Victoria falls in Africa to a central trickle, losing both limbs. The Mekong river has met the same fate forcing Jeremy Clarkson, who termed climate change a global hoax, to change his mind and admit it was “genuinely alarming”. Filming his show “The Grand Tour” he had to abandon his plans to sail down the river because it was reduced to a puddle. He cycled instead.
On the other hand, typhoons and cyclones have become regular affairs. We in India have been hit by a monsoon that went haywire and destroyed crops with unseasonal heavy rains. Farmers’ suicides followed; food prices, specially onions, went through the roof, out of reach of the common man. Global warming is estimated to have reduced India’s GDP by 3% and will hit living standards by 2050. The UN office for Disaster Risk Reduction estimates that India’s economy lost $79.5 billion in 19 years due to disasters.
During a recent Delhi trip I was urprised at being greeted with a mild haze and comfortable temperatures. Luckily the wind had changed direction and there had been a mild drizzle. But I still couldn’t help sympathising with the locals who had to bear almost inhuman conditions. Why did it have to be so?
If you stepped back from the political finger pointing and brownie point scoring accusations, you realised that one of the remedies was so childishly simple that you wondered what stopped our leaders from implementing it. The immediate issue was the annual burning of the post-harvest farm stubble. The harvesting machines used, leave behind fairly long stubble, making burning the quickest and most cost-effective method of disposal. The length is easily reduced by using special machines or harvesting manually providing job opportunities and providing fodder that could be put to good use. Instead of implementing this obvious solution, the political mudslinging and lack of inter-State cooperation exposed the locals to grave health risks.
The vehicular population has gone up from 2.3 million in 1988 to 11.2 million today. Introducing the odd-even scheme has not produced the desired results. The effect of another short-term measure, directed by the SC, the 20-metre high ‘smog towers’ await installation and assessment. It is claimed that they will create a clean air zone by trapping and reducing particulate matter by 50%. However, such measures are band-aid solutions. We urgently need long term policy solutions. We need to move away from fossil fuels in favour of renewable energy such as solar and wind power. Long term plans must be in place to move to electric vehicles.
The income tax department should pitch in with incentives for research. EVs for public transport specially autos, taxis and buses should have preferential loan schemes, subsidies and reduced road tax as incentives. The loss to the exchequer will be more than compensated by the benefits in health care, reduced disease burden and attendance at OPDs.
Air pollution has short term respiratory consequences and long-term detrimental effects on the heart and lungs including carcinogenic effects. Whilst on the subject of health, the green surgical masks commonly used are designed to stop the wearer breathing over the patient as in surgery. They are of no use for filtering inspired air, which requires N95 and N99 masks. These are of scientifically proven efficacy and shown to reduce the harmful effects of low AQI in Beijing and California.
As Laurence Tubiana, the CEO of the European Climate Foundation, puts it, “It is not a question of being optimistic or pessimistic. We have to accelerate the movement”. As doomsday approaches, we need to act now because the very survival of future generations depends on it.
(The writer is a founder member of the Voluntary Health Association of Goa)
