In 2012 the general mood of the Goan electorate was to give the reins of office to the Manohar Parrikar-led BJP and a drubbing to the Congress party. The anti-Congress disposition was clear well before the counting of votes which finally culminated in a clear mandate of 22 seats to BJP and the Congress reduced to 9 in the forty-member Assembly. A substantial slice of the traditional Congress voter switched loyalty to the BJP, temporarily, to deliver the lesson of what could be termed as clean and transparent politics. After tasting the second round of Chief Minister Parrikar and finding it a complete reversal of the previous celebrated stint (2000 to 2005) coupled with the Prime Minister Modi’s bombastic rule attacking well entrenched democratic institutions, the Goan electorate voted to oust the BJP in the 2017 general elections to the state assembly. The BJP was reduced to 13 and the Congress gained 17. However, the mid-night drama of political negotiations orchestrated by BJP with the active connivance of central government and an ever plying governor put the Parrikar-led BJP government in power.
As Goa approaches the battle of the ballot in two parliamentary and the three by-elections to assembly constituencies, the general temper of the electorate is anti-BJP. It cannot be safely assumed to be positively for the Congress party. But, the voters in general are likely to hold to the crutches of the Congress as something like a walking-aid to communicate their dissatisfaction and frustration at the politics played by the BJP at the state and central level. More than the failures on economic front, the onslaught on democracy and the idea of Indian Republic is dominating the mind of the Goan electorate. The dirty dance of the elected representatives in Goa and the swapping of MLAs as if the assembly is a dancing floor for exchange of companions at whims and fancies has specifically eroded the credibility of BJP and the confidence in ballot in general.
After the demise of Manohar Parrikar, the immediate challenge before the youngest Chief Minister is to streamline the bureaucracy and tone up effectiveness which was supposed to have collapsed during the few months prior to exit of Parrikar. The other challenges pertain to restart of mining and raising resources for the infrastructure programmes of the government. Politically, the major challenge is to navigate with not only the coalition partners but also his party MLAs knowing that Pramod Sawant was not the unanimous choice. The personality and public image of Parrikar gave him the power much larger than that of a Chief Minister. Pramod Sawant would be under constant pressure to ensure stability of the government and yet avoid damage to the reputation of his political party which has received a beating since the time the government was initially formed with Parrikar at the helm. The chief minister has gone public about the imminent threats to his government in case of an adverse verdict in the forthcoming parliamentary and by-elections. The coalition partners and the Independents supporting the government are well aware about the anti-BJP tremors in the state. A positive outcome for BJP at the parliamentary and by-elections could soften these challenges, though adding aspirants for ministerships! This is yet another immediate challenge before the Chief Minister.
As we reach the date of poll, the fight is clearly between Congress and BJP for the parliamentary seats. Though AAP is in the fray making some noise in South Goa, the electorate is most unlikely to allow them to spoil the sport. Whatever may be the ideological differences or acrimony over the onslaught on democracy and institutions with the BJP, it is to the credit of BJP managers for they work overtime to snatch win from the jaws of impending defeat. They are alert and quick to repair the nut and bolts plugging likely leakages. They are also today’s prodigal political party with overflowing resources. The Congress politicians are masters at converting the advantage of comfortable win to a mild crushing by the opponent.
The general public in Goa desires the defeat of BJP in these elections which indirectly is for the Congress to poll the maximum votes. However, if the Congress party thinks that the conversion into actual voting would happen automatically, it’s on a weak ground. The Congress has risked in giving the candidates for both the parliamentary seats despite better options. Despite this, if the Congress wins, the full credit should go to the electorate and no individual candidate of the party should boast of self-image and popularity. A Congress win would only demonstrate the strong anti-BJP stand of the Goan electorate. The sidelining of the MGP though inevitable for the BJP would be of advantage to the Congress party. On the converse, if the Congress slips, which is most unlikely to happen, it would be the success of the BJP and its organisational skills.
Coming to by-elections, the Congress party might have realised by now that they did not make the people’s choice as their candidate in Shiroda. This constituency could witness the real contest between BJP and MGP. It appears that Congress is in advantageous position in Mapusa and a close finish is expected between the two national parties at Mandrem provided the BJP karyakartas continue to lurk in their injury and hurt reflecting on the EVM.
The bye-election to the capital constituency of Panaji would follow. A hot summer in Goa made more boiling with elections. As the monsoon sets in, it will bring thunder and lightning of political instability.
(The writer is an educationist and political commentator)
