The copter crash on Sunday that claimed the lives of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has thrown the Islamic Republic into an era of political uncertainty especially in a fluid world with so frequent changes in all fronts.
With the loss of its top political figure, Iran has already found itself grappling with internal and geopolitical changes and maximum challenges on several fronts, especially in the wake of regional tension following the ongoing tension in Gaza.
Raisi’s demise comes at a critical time for Iran which is already saddled with political transition which is weighed against the aging Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Raisi, who was hugely seen as a loyalist to the 85-year-old Khamenei, was speculated and all set to be the potential successor to the supreme leader.
However, his untimely death has cleared to an extent several matters and among them a major issue being the path for Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei even as the hereditary succession issue was gaining a lot of traction though the clerics were not quite cool with the matter.
As a close ally of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Raisi’s loss could have significant implications for Iran’s political landscape. The constitution mentions that in such an event, the first vice-president, Mohammad Mokhber, would assume the presidency. Khamenei has reassured that Iran’s operations won’t hamper and would continue uninterrupted despite the incident.
The death of President Ebrahim Raisi is feared to lead to a period of political instability in Iran as the country seeks to select a new leader. According to experts, Raisi’s death would force the regime to find a new president at such difficult times even as Iran is engaged in a regional war and faces challenges in the economic front too.
The new president’s economic policies could have implications for Iran’s ties with other countries and its approach to issues such as sanctions and reforms in the economic front.
Also, in some quarters, Raisi’s clueless handling of the economy was widely criticized, and his death could lead to changes in the country’s economic strategy.
The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has the potential to significantly impact Iran, Israel, and global markets. The extent of these impacts will depend on the political and economic developments that follow the unfortunate event, as well as the reactions of other countries in the region and beyond.
Within the country’s leadership issues which has many stakeholders in the module with clerics, politicians and the army… the supreme leader is ultimately what matters and not the president.
Beyond internal power struggles, Iran faces escalating tensions with regional adversaries… and in this regard one has to put Israel ahead and above all. Israel’s war against Hamas and the subsequent outcome (so far) that has unfolded in Gaza over the last seven months has created global opinion and tensions soaring across West Asia without any doubt.
The recent exchange of direct strikes between Iran and Israel also further escalated concerns of a wider conflict. Last month, Iran launched a drone and missile attack on Israel which was followed by an Israeli airstrike on the (Iran’s) consulate in Damascus. It may be recalled that though direct strikes between the two have ceased now, conflicts in the proxy form persist, with Iran-backed groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah continuing to keep the forces of Israel engaged.
Raisi’s death will certainly amplify concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme and its uneven relations with the West in particular. Iran’s enrichment of uranium to complete weapons-grade levels had also drawn global criticism and had heightened fears of the proliferation of nuke facilities.
Iran’s alleged support for armed groups in conflict zones beyond West Asia especially in Ukraine had further complicated its global standing.
It may be noted that the influence of Iran extends beyond West Asia and its rivalry with Israel is a well-known fact.
The West and archrivals Israel have long suspected that Tehran was pursuing N-weapons especially in the guise of a peaceful atomic programme in what they see as a threat to non-proliferation all across.
Also, it may be noted that Israel is widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed power in the West Asia region, even though it has never acknowledged the same. Iran has also emerged as a key ally of Russia even as the Ukraine war is on full throttle.
NOW WHAT
With the new conflict in Gaza already months old, Israel and Iran have engaged in a shadow war of covert operations and that includes cyberattacks too for years.
The fire exchange recently marked the first direct military confrontation. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestinian groups has involved other Iranian allies, with each attack and counterattack posing a threat to escalate into a broader conflict in West Asia.
And regional experts fear that this volatile situation could get worse following Sunday’s fatal copter crash.
On Monday, Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations said the Islamic country plans to “resolutely pursue its foreign policy agenda” under Supreme Leader Khamenei. “Without a doubt, the path of Iran’s foreign policy will continue with strength and power, under the guidance of the Supreme Leader,” the council was quoted as saying by a state media outlet. “With their active presence in foreign policy arenas,” the president and his top diplomat “did what they could to realize the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the statement said.
INDIA AND IRAN
PM Narendra Modi remembered India’s ties with Iran. He wrote on X, “Deeply saddened and shocked by the tragic demise of Dr Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. His contribution to strengthening India-Iran bilateral relationship will always be remembered. My heartfelt condolences to his family and the people of Iran. India stands with Iran in this time of sorrow.”
After the Cold War ended, India has tried to maintain cordial relations with most countries in West Asia. Iran, which shares borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan, is a key player.
The two countries signed a friendship treaty in 1950, marking the beginning of diplomatic relations. After the Iranian Revolution in 1979, a “new phase of engagement” began between the two nations, as per the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
Trade and connectivity have also defined New Delhi’s ties with Tehran. In 2022-23, India’s bilateral trade with Iran reached $2.33 billion. While New Delhi’s trade with Tehran had declined in recent years, it saw a 21.77 per cent uptick in 2022-23, after Raisi came to power in 2021.
During PM Modi’s visit to Iran in 2016, the two countries, along with Afghanistan, signed an agreement to develop the port to avoid routes in Pakistan.
Iran also has ties with Pakistan, even though their relations have been rocky. Last month, during Raisi’s visit to Islamabad, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif tried to rake up the issue of Kashmir, thanking the Iranian president for “support”.
However, while addressing a joint press conference with Sharif, Raisi refrained from mentioning Kashmir.
(The writer is a Senior Journalist and former Senior Associate Editor, O Heraldo, Goa)
