For a change I thought it’s a good idea to recapitulate with you, major happenings in the last year, which left us very happy and see what we learn from them all, for the year that’s come!
My Take: I think the last year brought several happenings to be happy about for us here in India, although, most of them have cautions tagged; I pick a set of six for reasons of limits of space:
1) The Rise and Rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) but the growth of threat from Deepfake. 2) The successful Chandrayan-3; 3) A spectacular G20 summit during Indian Presidency; 4) Replacement of the 160-year-old Indian Criminal Laws Codes, with the “Bhartiya Nyaya Sanhitas” 5) The “Women’s’ Reservation Law” for Seats in the Lok Sabha and the State Assemblies, named the “Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam”; and 6) The Sensex at 72000, but the Rupee down to 83/-
Let’s reflect on these 6 happenings to rejoice (mostly with a tag of caution)
1. Artificial Intelligence and Caution on Deep Fakes: Through the last year, AI has taken remarkable strides in Manufacture and Logistics, particularly in Auto and Pharma Sectors, in Health Care; and in Education, the caution however is on development of Deepfakes and how to tackle this pesky offshoot in the year that’s now come. And there are widespread concerns on use of Deepfakes in political propaganda, in business frauds and in medical diagnostics. There have been full-length movies already, using icons like Harrison Ford or Elvis Presley remodelled or resurrected through Deepfake in mega-movies. How to flag destructive deep fakes will be the tough agenda for next year.
2. The Chandrayan-3 was our pride. One of its agenda of course was, “to conduct in-situ scientific experiments”. I’m sure much of these would have been complete by now, I’m not sure whether without compromising on national security a few of the results could be shared with citizens and students for their involvement in future programs.
3. The G20 summit was truly spectacular, with its laser-beams and piped-in music! We got the 2700 crore “Bharat Mandapam” and we got to include in the Delhi Declaration “Today’s Era must not be of War”! Although shortly thereafter, the Hamas-Israel war did break out with mentorship and support from some active members. The nineteen members present could not “name” the twentieth for its disruptive role in the Ukraine War and in world trade of commodities. A lot was spoken on Climate Change and degradation of land but hardly anything on fixing roles and responsibilities. And yes, it’s wonderful that we got the African Union in, and the proposal for the New Spice Route Corridor. The proposal to set up an “Energy Transition Fund of $1bn is laudable it’s important to see this through past the next Budgets.
4. Modernisation of Criminal Laws: the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita Act, 2023, replacing the IPC 1860; the Bharatiya Sakshya Adhiniyam, 2023, replacing the Evidence Act 1872; and the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, 2023, replacing the Code of Criminal Procedure, 1973 was a good job done, albeit in haste, on the last day of the Parliament session. They provide for coverage of new-era crimes and spell out time-lines and accountabilities upto the conclusion of the investigation, as also a cap on adjournments. Punishments for hit-and-run cases have provoked the ire of truckers, who have gone into the immediate protest-modes. The new year will see how many of the five crore pending cases in different courts come down and the common man gets his justice. The test of the Executive is however, on actual implementation and actual enforcement, with transition provisions, which are still to come.
5. The Women’s Reservation Act: A long-hanging bill! It’s positive and its rotational seat ear-markings would be well placed in my view. I’m not clear though, on why this should not apply to the Rajya Sabha or to the Upper House Seats in States. Honestly, I’m also quite non-plussed as to when this would ever turn into reality. Wait for a Census first, following the implementation of the NRC and the CAA; then a delimitation exercise next to the one currently scheduled. All this will most certainly stretch beyond the 2034 Elections! But that’s not a problem, since we already have a brand-new Parliament House in place last year, we’re proud of.
6. The Sensex climbs to 72000, but the Rupee dives to 83/-: Good for investors is the Sensex hovering around 72K. I read a study from an international investment banker and it shows the Dollar weakened around 7% last year, it’s a mystery then, why the Rupee should further erode by around a percentage point given that all parameters were favourable including crude prices, as also the perception factor (the Sensex increased by a healthy 20%). I think this is one point which has to be looked into with a magnifying glass given that our Forex Kitty is still a good 630-bn-strong and our Current Account Deficit just 1.7% albeit a shrinkage of around 7% in FDI inflows Q4!
Away from all this, the one news of which I didn’t quite figure out whether to be happy or whether to be sad about, was the news that India becomes happily, the Worlds’ Largest Country by Population at 1.43 bn (overtaking China during the year); but it remains sadly, 143rd out of 195 countries in 2023 at just $2389/- annual per-capita income (nominal rates), no laser-beams, no fly-pasts over the house of the 143 Croreth baby born, no big headlines, just a small news-report tucked away in the 11th page! I’ll leave this for discussions later.
And before I part, a hundred years ago, Al-Mustapha in Gibran’s “The Prophet” was heard saying to the islanders, “The timeless in you is aware of life’s timelessness. And knows that yesterday is but today’s memory and tomorrow is today’s dream.”..
Yesterday is finally over yes, tomorrow is already upon us!
(Binayak Datta is a finance professional)
