Ajit Pawar’s deserting of his uncle who is also a political heavyweight and the winner of several political battles and NCP boss Sharad Pawar, on Sunday, will certainly have a huge impact on the Opposition unity, which was initiated to a somewhat shaky start with 15 parties, in the Patna Conclave in June.
Following the Ajit Pawar episode, the already ‘fractured’ unity among the Opposition parties saw a turbulence, when the Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress showdown and the TMC’s ‘sermons’ to the Congress over seeking bonhomie at the national level, but having a different episode at the state level.
However, the conclave went on smoothly despite apparent fissures in the Parivar which was never sangh (together) in real terms.
Also, it may be noted that the Congress and the Communist Party of India-Marxist do not see eye-to-eye in Kerala.
Now, with Ajit Pawar’s decision, this move will have several aftershocks to the ‘newly found’ bonhomie between strange partners in an attempt to stitch together a coalition or whatever they call it, to take on the BJP in the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
With the Ajit Pawar episode culminating… the following are the highlights of the Maha Saga… Resurgence of the Saffron might:
Sunday’s high-octane episode in Maharashtra will again put the BJP behind the steering wheel.
*After snapping the Chacha-Bhatija connect, BJP is certainly in a better position to create an alliance ahead of the general elections in Maharashtra.
*Will Sunday’s development (all but) end MVA’s edge totally? Or will sympathy for them be catalysed?
*With the junior Pawar’s re-emergence in a new role, will the alliance have a formidable electoral control over Maharashtra in entirety?
Congress blamed?:
If political grapevine is correct, (Ajit) Pawar’s supporters were unhappy with Sharad Pawar and Supriya Sule sharing the dais with Rahul Gandhi in Patna and their ‘willingness’ to accept his role.
Following this episode, will the remaining regional parties now accept the ‘monopoly’ of the Congress if the Opposition unity takes shape at all?
Senior Pawar in a spot:
Has the seasoned and astute senior Pawar lost it? Didn’t Sharad Pawar get a whiff of the conspiracy which was being hatched literally ‘at home’? Full credit not only goes to the script writer but the way it was pulled off with all political smartness. This episode will hugely weaken the strongman.
Meanwhile, far away from Mumbai where a coup of sorts was pulled off on Sunday, the tremors were felt in Patna too? It may be noted that on Friday, Nitish Kumar met legislators of his party. His meeting with the party’s Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs is slated soon. JD (U) top brass said the meetings were to prepare for the forthcoming Bihar Assembly session and the monsoon session of Parliament.
But what is the ground reality? Is Nitish Kumar wary of any such situation?
Ever since the beginning of this year, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had commented that his party leader Upendra Kushwaha had left the party twice or thrice before and Kushwaha had said that several top JD(U) leaders were in touch with the BJP as the JD(U) had weakened.
About Kushwaha: After merging his Rashtriya Lok Samata Party with the JD(U) in 2021, Kushwaha had become the chairman of JD(U)’s parliamentary board.
He (Kushwaha) was made the Leader of the Opposition in the State Assembly in 2000, but parted ways in 2005 to join the NCP. He returned to the JD(U) in 2010 and became a Rajya Sabha member. However, he quit both in 2013.
Flashback: In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 39 of Bihar’s 40 seats, with BJP bagging 17, JD(U) 16 and Lok Janshakti Party 6. In 2022, the JD(U) parted ways with the NDA, forming the ‘grand alliance’ government. However, it is to be seen if the JD(U) would get to contest 16 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha as part of the six-party ‘grand alliance’, which includes the Congress, RJD and three Left parties.
Importance of being Fadnavis: After apparently lying low, Devendra Fadnavis has again emerged as the mastermind of Maharashtra politics as he deftly faced veteran Sharad Pawar’s 2019 ‘bouncer’ in India’s major political league which has surprises and sharp twists galore.
With Ajit Pawar’s inclusion, Fadnavis has proved to the party’s top brass that given an opportunity, he is capable of playing a crucial role.
It may be recalled that Fadnavis had to face major embarrassment in 2019 when he formed the government with the assistance of Ajit Pawar but it (the regime) could last only a few days. Fadnavis’ image had then taken a major beating especially in the eyes of the party’s central leadership.
But Sunday’s masterstroke has put all this behind him. Considering the scenario of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP had sensed that it would be difficult to ride the Shinde crest alone to ensure victory. And hence, the Sunday episode has come as a major relief to the BJP as far as ensuring widespread support in Maharashtra as of now is concerned.
However, with the Sunday episode over, and the dust settling, the picture will get clearer and how the Opposition unity will emerge from this crisis and what NCP boss Sharad Pawar will do to keep his image intact will become more evident.
But in all this, it may be said that the Opposition first has to keep their respective (party) clan together before they are in a position to stitch a unity plan which should also be highly credible notwithstanding the differences they already have amongst each other.
(Writer is Senior Journalist and former Senior Associate Editor,)
