Political analysts made grim predictions about the outcome of the forthcoming elections for Modi. At best they said he would get a significantly reduced majority; at worst he would lose his majority but remain the largest single party. Even his position as prime minister was tenuous as he would have to depend on coalition partners for survival; and unlike Vajpayee, coalition politics is not his forte. The predictions were largely based on the government’s dismal record. Demonetisation was an unmitigated disaster with personal whims ruling over better counsel from experts. GST was ruined by inadequate preparation and hasty execution. Unemployment threatened to cause social disruption. Farmers are facing ruin and suicides have shot up. Mistreatment of Dalits and minorities are the norm, with lynchings, gau rakshak policing, moral policing, ‘anti-national’ policing, religious policing, love jihad policing; the list is endless. Major institutions have been compromised.
Then came Pulwama, and the Balakot and ASAT chest thumping. The narrative changed from the policy shambles to hyper-nationalism. The election campaign acquired a new lease of life. But such events do not always trigger a reversal of trends. The surgical strikes did help the BJP; Kargil did not. And 26/11 did not dent the Congress fortunes. The Rs 5000 crore spent on the government advertising blitzkrieg may well end up like the India shining campaign.
There were wild claims, and embarrassing clarifications. Three hundred militants were killed, claimed the BJP president. The faithful Yogi upped it to 450; then the IAF clarified that they destroyed targets; body counts were not in their domain. So, precisely who carried out a body count if at all? Journalists were flayed, trolled, and threatened with sexual abuse for trying to introduce a note of sobriety by asking such questions. Police complaints, FIRs and arrests followed. One journalist was prompted to retort during an interview “neither me nor anyone here needs any lessons in nationalism or patriotism from you or anyone else”
Temperatures having settled somewhat, a crucial question arises: Has anything changed for the ordinary Kashmiris? Obviously not. He is still stuck between a rock and a hard place. He still risks getting shot by militants on the slightest suspicion of working for the Indian government as an informer. If he survives that, he runs the risk of being picked up by the police, tortured and done to death on suspicion of being a militant. Custodial deaths like that of Rizwan Pandit whether in Kashmir or Bihar, barely raise eyebrows. Not only is there no attempt to win the hearts and minds of the ordinary Kashmiri, but on the contrary, he is targeted merely for belonging to the minority community. Kashmiri students’ miles away from the conflict were assaulted. Traders selling dried fruits on the pavement were beaten up. I am sure Modi would have maintained his usual studied silence as he did with the lynchings, and assaults even on children, if it was not election season.
Social progress in Kashmir is stagnant; jobs are scarce, the main employer being the government as there is no private investment. Old killers like Tb, RTI, UTI, and diarrhoea are increasing; newer diseases like hypertension, heart disease, cancer and diabetes have joined the list. Basic amenities like sanitation and safe drinking water are lacking. Suicides have not only shot up, but 76.3% are below the age of 44 yrs. Post-traumatic stress disorders (PTSD) has emerged as a major mental health issue. And all this because the people are nothing but vote banks, doomed to subjugation. Even scrapping Section 35-A and 370 has now entered the political debate.
The rest of the country follows the trend. Khan’s family still awaits justice, with the family threatened and prevented from attending hearings. So does Mohammad Akhlaq’s. It took a Daily Telegraph reporter to locate Nirav Modi “hiding in plain sight” in London. A recent advertisement for railway khalasis and peons, attracted two crore applications for 62,907 jobs. Of these, 85 lakhs had higher education, 419,137 had BTech degrees and 40,751 had Masters Degrees in Engineering. Unemployment is the worst in 45 years. Figures provided by the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) and the Central Statistical Office (CSO) were suppressed by the government and leaked. Youth unemployment stands at 16%, with 17.4% for rural males between 15-19 years, and 13.6% for females. GDP figures were so scrambled that no one knows what to believe. The promised creation of 20 million jobs, ended with a loss of 11 million jobs, as per CMIE reports.
Instead of seizing the opportunity, the opposition is in total disarray. The Congress is shackled by a superiority complex and nostalgia based on a history which hardly matters to the thousands of new young voters. Attempts at forming alliances based on local issues are halfhearted, unlike the BJP. Regional issues and parties dominate. In Goa it is the casinos, jobs, coal pollution and mining.
In Maharashtra farmers’ suicides crossed 12,006 between 2015-18; a 91% increase over previous three years. In the NE it is the Citizenship Act. In UP, the cow welfare policy with a Rs 447 crore allocation has resulted in stray cattle wreaking havoc with farmers’ crops. State sanctioned police encounters, 1,038 in nine months, with 32 deaths, on trumped up charges by ATS are the new norm. The cow story repeats itself in Rajasthan where the new government does not have the courage to reverse irrational cow policies.
Campaigning in this election has hit new uncivil lows. It ranges from referring to human beings as termites by a party president to ominously confident predictions by Sakshi Maharaj of a Modi victory and that “this will be the last election in India”. Could it be that he knows something that we ordinary citizens don’t? And should we be forewarned and forearmed?
(The writer is a founder member of the Voluntary Health Association of Goa.)
