Maharashtra’s new Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has taken office. His administration is an explicit alliance of a breakaway faction of the Shiv Sena and the BJP. Political understanding between the BJP and Shiv Sena seems to return to almost full circle after a hiatus of nearly three years. Despite intermittent jostling between BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena in the prosperous state of Maharashtra, their political bond – essentially marked by shared acquiescence to a form of “Hindutva” – mostly endured from a crisp autumn morning in 1989. That year, ahead of parliamentary elections, both parties formed their first pre-poll alliance for better political harvesting in that era of Congress dominance across the country.
Thereafter, through the political odyssey of subsequent decades, that alliance remained. Even then, frictions continued. The BJP-Sena alliance won elections for the first time in 1995. But, in several subsequent elections, the alliance could not retain or win back power. A cardinal instance of disquiet was when late BJP leader Pramod Mahajan stated that he wished to discern a fully BJP-dominated Maharashtra. As a rejoinder, the late, redoubtable Shiv Sena Supremo Bal Thackery retorted that “Kamalabai (read BJP) was blooming in the state only because of Shiv Sena”.
But then, the process of Indian politics took a pronounced turn. After the vicious Gujarat riots in 2002, then Indian Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, in an indirect reprimanding of the then Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, asked for a pursuance of “raj dharma” or principled governance by the Modi dispensation in the state. Incidentally, Bal Thackeray extended his support to Narendra Modi at the time; Thackeray averred that it was essential to recognize Modi’s potential as a leader. It contributed significantly to Modi’s rise through the BJP ranks to that of a national leader.
Under Modi’s direction, the BJP-led NDA alliance won a sensational victory in 2014 general elections. Its political afterglow permeated into Maharashtra’s state politics. Consequently, that year, the BJP drove a hard seat-sharing bargain with the Sena for the Maharashtra Assembly polls. The BJP- Shiv Sena alliance won. But, for the first time, the BJP won considerably more seats in the Maharashtra Assembly than the Sena. In the government, the Sena got mostly insignificant portfolios. By then, Bal Thackeray had passed away. His son Uddhav Thackeray was helming the party.
The Sena took to carping and fretting; it often criticizing the BJP at the centre and in the state. After the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections, the BJP deciphered that it was dependent on the Sena for government formation. Immediately the Sena upped its ante of demands. The BJP was in no mood to relent. Consequently, a monumental irony occurred. The Sena joined hands with the NCP and the Congress to form the state government and to keep the BJP at bay! Its new coalition partners were only too happy to see it that way. The new regime, titled “Maha Vikas Aghadi” (MVA) was led by Uddhav Thackeray.
However, an alliance of mere convenience does not endure for long. Despite several grievances against the BJP, the Sena’s rank and file could fathom that venturing along with the NCP and the Congress was bound to falter. The Sena’s political grounding is based on anti-Congress and contra-NCP approach. In continuing this aberration for too long, the Sena itself became subject to dissensions and incoherence.
In adherence to ideology, disgruntlement with leadership, and for personal aggrandizement, Shinde and some of his adherents rebelled against Uddhav Thackeray’s leadership and declared support for the BJP. They were welcomed jubilantly. BJP skillfully handed over the Chief Minister’s chair to Shinde to cement his group’s support completely. Former BJP Chief Minister, Devendra Fadnavis, has been made deputy Chief Minister.
This is a signal to Thackeray and his faction that they appear the looser by being antagonistic to BJP. Notably, Shinde and other rebel MLA’s of the Sena have strong support base across rural Maharashtra. Uddhav Thackeray’s appeal is mostly concentrated within Mumbai, its suburbs, and a few other urban pockets of the state.
The BJP-led NDA has politically bagged the crucial state of Maharashtra, at present. That has been achieved through what is known as “floor-crossing by several MLAs. This is definitely not a new phenomenon in Indian politics. During the decades of Congress party’s dominance in the Indian political scene under the leadership of Indira Gandhi, it had occurred perennially. Perhaps the most infamous instance was in Andhra Pradesh in 1983. Then, in order to try and wrest power in that state from the Telugu Desam dispensation, led by the illustrious N.T. Rama Rao, the Congress had tried to engineer adequate floor-crossing. But, to its regret, NTR deftly overcame the challenge. The Congress, figuratively speaking, had to eat humble pie. Today in Maharashtra, Uddhav Thackeray did not wield enough influence within his dispensation to be able to tide over the challenge to his government. Therefore, although distasteful and regrettable to norms of parliamentary proprieties, altering governments through “floor-crossing” has occurred in the past and the risk of its happening again in future cannot be negated.
So, despite appropriate questions being raised about the manner the state government in Maharashtra has been changed, all that could be eclipsed by one aspect: in love, war, and Indian politics, the winner takes all. The BJP-led NDA also seems to have increased its area of influence in endeavouring to win the 2024 parliamentary elections. The constituents of MVA would have to ponder in earnest for a politically effective rejoinder, if there are any.
(The author is a columnist with specialisation in International Affairs, the Economy, Indian politics and certain feature topics)
