Panjim goes to the polls for the 16th time since 1967. This time, all eyes are on the Panjim constituency by-elections for reasons more than one. Being the capital of the State, it is a citadel of prestige. The political air is rife with the belief that the results of this constituency will make or unmake the State government. The seat was held by Manohar Parrikar who has left an indelible stamp on Goa’s political scene as a studious Leader of Opposition and a highly competent Chief Minister. Though a cadre-based political outfit, Goa BJP was synonymous with Manohar Parrikar. He was endeared as well as feared.
Panjim elected a Congress MLA twice in 1984 and 1989. The electorate of the capital gave the baton twice to United Goans Party (1963 and 1967), once to MGP (1972), Janata Party (1977) and Independent (1980). As a contrast to this, the constituency has gone to the polls eight times since 1994, with BJP retaining it every time. The victory margin of the BJP has been comfortable in the range of 1500 to 2500 at each election except an abnormally high margin of over 6000 votes in 2012. This was due to the personal charisma of Manohar Parrikar compounded by the advisory from the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Goa and Council for Social Justice, a social work wing of the Archdiocese on voting against corruption. This “effect” facilitated a splendid win to BJP and supernormal margin of victory to Parrikar in 2012. This nuptial stands disrupted post-2014.
Though there are four candidates in the ring, the final race to first-past-the-post (FPTP) will certainly be between the BJP and the Congress. Over the years, the BJP has improved and consolidated its voter base in the constituency which confidently can be assumed to be in the range of 6500 plus votes. A perusal of election statistics indicates that the Congress reliable voter support stays pegged at 5000 on an average. Additions or subtractions from these averages occur based on voter turnout, the standing of the candidate in the relevant year, voter perceptions in specific election, personal power (vote chunk) of the candidate, incumbency factor, etc.
For the Congress, this by-election kindles hope of a win. It’s true that their candidate Atanasio Monserrate is not perceived to be clean and trustworthy. But, the candidate is known as a go-getter, politically focused and has the net-work of councillors and local political chiefs to lift him to the finishing line.
The Congress did not have any name in their kitty which could pose a threat to the BJP. Though, at the start, Monserrate was keen to contest as independent, it would have invited his defeat at the elections and a smooth passage for BJP. Politically, the coming together was a good stroke to ensure a win-win situation for both. In fact, in today’s politics this is trended as smartness. If the BJP makes such moves, it would be extolled as visionary shifts for the mission of Congress Mukt Bharat!
The BJP and its candidate Sidharth Kuncalienker had won against Monserrate with a margin of 1069 votes in 2017. However, the current moment is different and the race to the finishing line is paved with hurdles for the BJP. First of all, there is built-in frustration against the BJP for their lacklustre two-year rule and the political games they played to stay in power.
In the absence of Parrikar, Sidharth no longer remains his protégé. The political drama of propping and dropping Utpal Parrikar as heir to the legacy of Manoharbhai has ruffled a few Parrikar loyalists and the hurt could be silently communicated at the polls. For the first time, the BJP candidate has to face the internal woes and foes.
The Goa Suraksha Manch has fielded their champion and the highly revered and respected Subhash Velingkar. The admirers are expected to mobilise voters at least to save the deposit of their Velingkarsir. For this, they need to work to a minimum target of 2500 votes assuming a 75% voter turnout. Whatever the GSM polls would be ‘grants-in-aid’ to the Congress candidate. The votes that the Aam Aadmi Party would poll would be the ones which could never otherwise go to Atanasio Monserrate. In the absence of AAP, these fingers would have pressed the NOTA option on the EVMs.
The noise the BJP is making on the criminal cases against the Congress candidate is the barometer of frustration at the adverse situation in which their candidate is placed. Through such noise the BJP is also reminding the people that they did political business and their ace leader, former Chief Minister Parrikar mastered political transactions with Atanasio Monserrate.
The BJP specially carved out a Planning Development Authority of Greater Panjim to accommodate the same person with criminal antecedents as chairperson. This was barter for opting out from election fray against Parrikar.
The people are also reminded of how politicians with criminal cases and taints of scam like Mauvin Godinho, Dilip Parulekar, Dayanand Mandrekar, Pandurang Madkaikar were granted ministerial sainthood by BJP. As Monserrate publishes the pending criminal cases as mandated by election rules, the unpublished criminal antecedents of BJP ministers in Goa cabinet also flash across. In fact, by nominating Sadhvi Pragya Singh, key accused in 2008 Malegaon blast case who faced arrest for terror charges as their parliamentary candidate for Bhopal, the BJP has lost propriety to raise the issue.
The atmosphere is pregnant with expectations for a change in guard in the capital city of Goa.
(The writer is an educationist and political commentator)
