Even after 10 days since the general election was held in Pakistan on February 8, confusion prevails.
The billion-dollar question currently is whether Pakistan will have re-elections? The Supreme Court will take up the petition that seeks to announce the February 8 elections null and void after the Rawalpindi commissioner admitted to massive rigging.
The petition, meanwhile, has also sought a stay order on the formation of the new government till the matter is resolved in the court.
A recap of the mandate would reveal that Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) secured 92 seats and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) bagged 80 seats while Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) was pegged at 54 seats… thus making the road to form the new government a rough ride.
CURRENT SITUATION?
PML-N and PPP leaders are having extensive meetings to form the government, making Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shehbaz the next prime minister. But there is a differences of opinion within both parties.
According to Pakistan’s daily Dawn, PML-N leader Khawaja Saad Rafique had mentioned the party dragging its feet over aligning with PPP. He suggested that PTI-backed independent members form a government with PPP support.
As per Dawn, not just Rafique but many leaders within the PML-N are moving away from the initial stance of forming a coalition with PPP.
The matter became more apparent after PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari demanded top constitutional posts and a PPP government in Balochistan to support PML-N.
Meanwhile, PTI is engaged in discussions to form the government at the Centre, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with the help of a new partner, Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC).
2024 is a crucial year as far as elections are concerned both for Pakistan and India especially how the respective governments would take the dialogues or monologues further into the future.
All is not lost till the last ball is bowled as they say in cricket. Ace cricketer-turned politician and now jailed Imran Khan is still capable of scoring a close century (pun intended). Independent candidates backed by his party, have logged in most seats in the recently held elections.
In fact, of the most Independents elected, majority are PTI-backed.
PTI managed to get more seats than the two main parties, which have the backing of the Pakistan Army.
However, none of the three parties are in a position to prove a simple majority in the National Assembly when it is convened in a few days. A PM candidate has to show a simple majority of 169 seats.
POLL MATRIX
The Assembly comprises 336 seats. Of these, 266 are decided through direct voting on the polling day. However, voting took place for 265 seats following the death of one candidate. There are 70 reserved seats – 60 for women and 10 for non-Muslims – allotted as per the strength of each party in the House which will determine the final position of parties in the Assembly.
To form the government, a party must get 133 seats out of 265 contested seats in the National Assembly. The poll panel has announced the results of 264 out of 265 directly-contested seats.
As a result, the whole scenario has become uncertain in Pakistan as to who will form the next government.
What happens to the victorious Independents?
According to Rule 92(6) of Pakistan’s poll code, once an Independent candidate wins, the candidate(s) gets three days to join a political party. The independent candidate has to apply to the head of the political party, who then informs the Election Commission.
The independents can also choose to club together under a name.
If the PTI-backed Independents join any political party, they will then get to fill the reserved seats which are based on their combined strength.
NEXT ACTION?
The uncertain outcome of Pakistan polls seems to lack clarity completely. However, PTI has already initiated rallies alleging that its actual tally should be read higher and the poll results have been rigged. It has also filed quite a few petitions alleging election malpractices.
Political analysts feel that there’s a possibility that some of the 92 winners would join hands with parties opposed to the PTI and become a part of the conglomerate. But then it is not going to be that easy and the equation will have a twist in the script.
And of course, this trend will differ from province to province. While in Punjab, such crossovers might not pose a problem but in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which PTI-backed candidates literally swept, mass defection might lead to creating a bad blood with voters who “trusted” the Independents depending on their pre-poll allegiance.
It may be noted that in the 1985 elections, no political party was permitted to participate, and thus every candidate, though with party allegiance and backing, had contested in his or her individual name. It was only the elected representatives who were allowed to form political parties, after the elections.
What then?
Another theory is that Sharif’s party might strike a deal with the Bhutto-Zardari’s PPP and then the coalition could attract other parties including Imran-backed candidates.
In April 2022, despite opposition, this was the order of the day after Khan was ousted.
However, there is another angle which must be taken into consideration and that is… Zardari’s son may end up negotiating to lead the coalition. Being young, he has a plus point of being a fresh face of the country especially in a nation where more than 60% of the population is under 30.
HOW IS INDIA CONCERNED?
New Delhi must be keeping a close watch on the activities. Pakistan’s continued support to terrorism has been a key issue of concern for India and the Modi-led government has been tougher on the national security front.
However, in his recent comments, Nawaz Sharif has shown openness towards India and also acknowledged the neighbouring country’s global advancements.
But his poll manifesto clearly says about his party’s readiness to make peace with India only if New Delhi reverses its decision to abrogate Article 370, which provided special status to Jammu and Kashmir.
Also, the result is a major blow to the military establishment of Pakistan. The mandate also reveals the fact that the young electorate aren’t happy with the way PTI was harassed persistently.
(Robin Roy is senior journalist and former senior Associate Editor, O Heraldo, Goa)
