As the elections to the Gujarat State Assembly comes close, there has been the biggest GST rejig with rates cut of over 200 items to provide relief amidst India’s economic meltdown. With 178 items shifted from the top tax bracket of 28% to 18%, the Congress party’s stand on capping GST at 18% is vindicated. The race for 2019 has begun. The Gujarat elections are seen as the quarter-final while semis would be on grounds of Rajasthan, Karnataka and MP which may bring in more goodies and substantial relief to the citizens. The simultaneous polls as proposed by the Prime Minister for Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabhas would rob of us such benefits. The consumers and businessmen shall heave a sigh of relief and thank the Gujarat elections. The rejig is a panic reaction of the government of the ground realities in Gujarat.
Though all pre-poll surveys — ABP news – Loknithi- CSDS, Times Now -VMR and the India Today-Axis-My India have given the saffron party a clear edge with a reduced vote share, Amit Shah speaks of 150 seats.
Gujarat has new stars Alpesh Thakore of the OBCs, Jignesh Mevani of the Dalits and Hardik Patel of the Patidhars. When young leaders take such stands, it is clear which way the wind is blowing. Notwithstanding the surveys, the elections in Gujarat has created a new atmosphere. The troika of Thakore, Hardik and Mewani seem to have galvanised the otherwise dormant Congress party. The exit of S S Vaghela is actually turning out to be a blessing in disguise with the principal opposition party gaining significant ground with the tie-ups and the ruling party. Despite the cult figure built around the Prime Minister and the state-wide RSS oiled machinery, the ruling party for the first time looks vulnerable. The invincibility built around the ‘development messiah’ is getting shattered. Looks like the messiah is unable to deliver singlehandedly. Central ministers and CMs are being drafted to carpet bomb the state in all 182 constituencies. But why such a panic despite a head start? The electoral defeats in Gurdaspur and Chitrakoot with margins never thought of seem to have rattled them. Is Chikmagalur round the corner?
So far the messiah had been questioning the incumbent governments at the centre and the states. He felled them on the ‘achche din’ promise of development in a fabricated atmosphere of hate and anger. In States like Maharashtra, UP and Haryana, the Congress faced an anti-incumbency wave. The only state where the ruling party had to defend it’s turf was Goa. Even in Punjab, the blame could be laid at the door of Akalis. In Goa, a divided Congress almost without any organisation brought down the ruling party. Mind you, the Congress party did not defeat BJP. The people of Goa did. Unfortunately ‘they’ defeated the people of Goa.
When warring sections unite, the combination can be lethal. Bihar has proved that. Imagine the implications of BSP and SP uniting. The Dalits and OBCs are uniting with upper caste Patidars in Gujarat. That is giving sleepless nights to the messiah. The iconic Vallabhbhai Patel may not come to his rescue.
The Adani-Ambani model referred to as the Gujarat model of development is being questioned. The investment drama called the Vibrant Gujarat – investors’ summit since 2003 may have helped redeem the honour in the aftermath of the 2002 riots and build the Messiah’s image as the hope of the industry, but the underemployment and unemployment has made the Gujarat model a laughing point among the youth. It is the young that is shattering their confidence. It is a pity that the messiah of development is not talking of the Gujarat model any more. A political commentator has summed up well ‘he promised voters everywhere if they voted for him, he would replicate Gujarat in their homeland. He cannot make such promises in his state….he has to convince them he has done enough’.
Never before have we heard about talk of a parliament session being deferred due to a state election. Had it not been for Gujarat elections, would we get GST relief to the extent of Rs 20,000 crore at a time when the international oil prices are hovering around 68 US$ per barrel? The EC’s reasons for late announcement of elections for Gujarat find no takers. The EC has actually destabilised the level playing field by permitting slew of inaugurations and announcements of new projects. Earlier there were Gujarat related GST reductions on kakra, cotton etc. No stone is left unturned in a campaign like never before. Despite all this, Shekar Gupta says ‘he may scrape through with a narrow margin’. Every election is different. The opinion polls could not get the pulse in Bihar and Delhi and of course who thought Congress could almost steal a victory in Goa?
This is an election Narendra Modi cannot afford to lose. Its effect shall find place in Karnataka, MP and Rajasthan and finally the ripple shall reach the Delhi Durbar in 2019. Will the atmosphere created by young rebels help demolish the Goliath at the hands of a reluctant David. It looks difficult. The old guard and young brigade cannot work in harmony. It is said, if Ahmed Patel could work with S S Vaghela, they could have formed a government in 2012!
Whichever way one looks at it, the people of Gujarat shall vote on his report card. For the people to win, they must be decisive so that they do not get defeated at the hands of whom they elect, as it happened in our State.
(The writer is a practicing lawyer and a senior faculty in law).
