A pre-election survey by a local channel showed the Goa government facing a huge anti-incumbency. 65% wanted a change in Government. The Chief Minister’s personal rating was at a lowly 24% at a time when the opposition is in disarray and decimated by regular desertions over the last four and half years. The survey showed the mood of the people devastated by Covid-19 mismanagement and administration riddled by corruption which had peaked at an all-time high. The governance is reflected by the state of our roads and highways. The Town and Country Planning Department is on a fast track mode to concretise the villages via Sec 16-B provision. But which party will harvest the anger of the people? Suddenly the Chief Minister looks cheerful as the ‘new dawn’ invades this tiny State.
The principal opposition party is undergoing a churn nationally. There is frustration over inept handling over Jyotiraditya Scindia, Jitin Prasad and Amarinder Singh. An impression is gaining that the grand old party is imploding due to the exit of some of these high profile ‘courtiers’ for greener pastures elsewhere. (Those who swore by mother and son were the first to desert!) It is a clash between those who see a bleak future under the leadership of the Gandhis and those who believe future belongs to them. There is a tectonic shift not visible to the eyes of the liberal class which is used to power via the dominant sections. There is little doubt over which way the party is heading – an old traditional path, ‘left of centre ‘with backward castes, marginalised and the poor at its core. Some may claim that’s reverse gear in the new economic era. The repair and renovation work is perceived as a demolition exercise. The induction of Kanaiya Kumar and the association of Jignesh Mewani comes at a time when a dalit is made a CM in Jat Sikh dominated Punjab. If this path continues at an accelerated pace, it would be the end of durbar politics – which the grand old party is always accused of.
The gallant fight-back by Mamata Banerjee led TMC had brought a new hope for 2024 general elections against the political use of hate and divisiveness to marshal a majority mandate. The bonhomie flowing from the impressive show in west Bengal was lost after ‘Jago Bangla’ asserted that didi and not baba has emerged as the face of the opposition against the PM. The Dilli r Daak (call of Delhi) at Durga Puja times has made her take over the responsibility of ousting the fascist forces. There is no doubt Congress has not displayed that kind of fire in the belly. But there is nothing to suggest that Didi alone can lead the battle for a more liberal India. With BJP firmly on the ‘right of centre’ politics, the attempt to carve out and occupy the political middle ground has certainly caused another churn in the anti-BJP space. It is extremely doubtful if there is a space for such a non-aligned mid-path.
The BJP has something to cheer about. BJP must be enjoying the prospects of TMC’s and AAP’s attempts at dismantling of the grand old party in smaller States like Goa, Punjab and Tripura. If the churn accelerates, in the long run it could be a three-cornered polity for the country. 2024 is two and half years away. How the national ambitions of Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal pan out will be known only in the next two years. Kanaiya Kumar and Jignesh Mewani could help in the much needed revival by their brand of street politics. Nana Patole seem to have brought out south bound Congress from the jaws of extinction in Maharashtra. The shining performance in the recent elections to the local bodies show that Congress decline is reversible.
With Trinamool acquiring some assets (and some liabilities also) from the Congress, the bitterness is only going to increase. As Goa goes to polls in 2022, the attempt by new players to have their national footprints could make the political battle in Goa against the BJP in 2022 elections interesting. The proposed national foray for Delhi based AAP and West Based Trinamool is certainly at the cost of Congress. It is not illegitimate on the part of any political party to occupy space ceded by the other party. But with BJP’s incredible election machinery and the foot soldiers of a sister organisation, the new players can only look at anti-BJP space. Is that the reason why the Chief Minister finds new confidence and hope?
A few days back a prominent national daily had a headline “Guj civic polls: BJP wins big, APP chips off Congress votes”. Gujarat based political scientist Hemant Shah states that AAP hopelessly split the anti-incumbency vote. The Parties wanting to oust the incumbent have to come together, but the chemistry between the parties has to work well. Such chemistry cannot be found when there is no spirit of accommodation for a larger goal. The game goes to the incumbent as against divided challengers.
It is believed that a four-cornered contests could throw up strange possibilities due to smallness of our constituencies. Though a lot would depend upon the choice of candidates by major political parties and of course the people can stand united to channelise their anger against the 10 years of misrule. People are accused of making unreasoned choices on instant gratification or election time freebies. People are getting wiser now. They know what is good for them. They can be decisive. They know they have to save what is left of this tiny State. They have also realised there is no third place in politics. The third and fourth place players have always distorted the public mandates.
(The writer is a practising advocate, senior faculty in law and political analyst)
