Reginaldo has brought Congress back to battle
As it turned out the Congress did have a problem of plenty in Curtorim. The outgoing MP Francisco Sardinha, who made a desperate bid to ensure his ticket after the AICC had initially cleared his name, lives barely three to four kilometers from the man who beat him yet again, the young turk, and once his prodigy Alexio Reginaldo Lourenco. The young fellow, beat him as a rookie to enter the Vidhan Sabha as a rebel Save Goa Front candidate, to merge back into the grand old party.
And finally, Reginaldo heaped the biggest embarrassment on Sardinha, by coming from nowhere to literally snatch the ticket away from him, as the Congress high command did a rare pragmatic rethink, giving the Congress a serious chance of winning the South Goa seat.
In fact, the BJP is seriously worried. Reactions, in private, revealed an absolute nervousness when Reginaldo’s name was finally announced, because the Curtorim MLA has no skeletons and his potent calling card has been his extreme anti Parrikarism. It assumes immense significance that Reginaldo kept up his attack on the government and the Chief Minister even during the honeymoon phase when South Goa had turned away from the Congress making Parrikar the beneficiary. While the South Goa parliamentary seat is beyond just Salcete and Mormugao, it does account for more than fifty per cent of the assembly segments. It is here that the Catholic vote will resonate and find a voice before the elections. Elections are swung on the basis of this voice, which is a cumulative mood swing that often defies the arithmetic of pollsters or the arm chair media.
It is of no mean significance that the Church has issued a statement asking Goans to vote for secular candidates, an euphemism for non BJP candidates. The critical game changer here is that the Church had given a silent go ahead before the last assembly elections to eradicate corruption and the scourge of family dominance in politics. That isn’t the overwhelming problem now.
Catholic MLAs and senior Catholic faces in the BJP concede that the biggest challenge this time around is to respond to Catholic voters when they ask why should they vote for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. It is now coming home to roost that a vote against the Congress with the prospect of Manohar Parrikar becoming Chief Minister was acceptable in 2012 but a vote for Narendra Modi isn’t really the giant leap that the Catholic voter is willing to take.
The selection of Lourenco, whose anti Parrikar stance and non corrupt image, serves two clear purposes. It will crystallise the fence sitters, who had veered away from the BJP and may have voted for Swati Kerkar of Aam Admi Party, to prevent a BJP victory, into giving Congress a chance. Secondly, it gives South Goa a chance to have a vocal, articulate young fresh face in the Lok Sabha.
Meanwhile there could be a third, though not very noticeable swing factor. Canacona taluka is BJP’s biggest worry. The fallout of the Balli riots, (Desais versus the tribal Velips) which incidentally, happened during Congress rule and the BJP in opposition raised the Congress’ mishandling of it, has ironically hit the BJP. The arrest of prominent Desai leaders, during Parrikar’s tenure, has turned them away from the BJP, while the tribal Velips, who were BJP’s staunchest supporters, feel let down because many of the promises of jobs and rehabilitation made to them haven’t quite been fulfilled. If aspiring MP, Reginaldo, can tap into this angst, he will make a huge dent on BJPs fortunes.
A quick back of the envelope calculation suggests that that a South Goa candidate needs about 1.5 lakh votes to go through. Reginaldo could get as much as 70,000 votes from the eight Salcete segments. Meanwhile, the BJPs leads in Mormugao and Vasco could be neutralised in Cortalim and Dabolim where Mauvin Godinho will surely back Reginaldo, making the battle in Ponda, Quepem, Sanguem and Curchorem, a do or die one for the BJP.
In a tough last slog over, the Congress may have just found a winner.
