The Earth’s average temperatures surpassed 1.5°C, breaking previous records, leading to sea ice loss in the Arctic, glacier melt in Greenland and the West Antarctic, high-intensity cyclones, and high rainfall events. Does this imply that certain aspects of the climate will reach a far more dangerous point in 2023?
During the COP28 UN climate talks in Dubai, more than 200 scientists worldwide delivered the latest Global Tipping Points Report, the conclusion of which is the scariest of all. The report lays out the scientific evidence for potential “positive” societal tipping points that could spur sustainable action and “negative” tipping points in the Earth system that could endanger people and the environment. Here are the takeaways from the report’s sections on the human impacts of tipping points in the Earth’s design and how these shifts should be managed.
Scientists have found over 25 tipping points in the Earth system after combing through historical and present scientific data and considering computer model projections. Six of these occur in the Earth’s ice-bound regions, including localized glacier tipping and permafrost thawing collapse of major ice sheets in Greenland and areas of Antarctica. Others include massive tree deaths in parts of the Amazon and northern boreal forests, savanna and dryland degradation, nutrient overloading of lakes, mass coral reef mortality, and the mass extinction of mangroves. Four possible tipping points were found in the circulation of the oceans and atmosphere, which included the disruption of the West African monsoon and the collapse of deep-ocean mixing in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica.
Some of these are already dangerously close to tipping thresholds due to human activity. Although the precise points are unknown, the current 1.2 °C global warming is projected to cause the widespread destruction of warm-water coral reefs. It may potentially tip in four more crucial climate systems.
Understanding the ramifications of going beyond these tipping thresholds can be challenging. For instance, the loss of innumerable species would result from the collapse of portions of the Amazon rainforest, and the atmosphere would warm even more as billions of tons of carbon presently stored in soil and trees would find their way into the atmosphere. The economic impact on the region will be in the trillions of dollars and expose millions of people to dangerously high temperatures and heat waves. Unfortunately, most evaluations have overlooked the tipping-point hazards.
Additionally, negative tipping can exacerbate financial instability, displacement, war, or polarization in human civilizations. These could lead to a change in the social structure that is more authoritarian, hostile, and alienating, which could completely thwart sustainability transitions.
Since most of these tipping points are primarily caused by climate change, and by quickly bringing greenhouse gas emissions down to a minimum, the likelihood of crossing these tipping points can be decreased. There is a need to swiftly reduce pollution and habitat loss while promoting ecological restoration and sustainable lifestyles to help prevent tipping points in the biosphere. We require bold new approaches to govern.
