Two, perhaps even almost four weeks down (if you consider the Tablighi fiasco started early March) and can we press the cautiously optimistic button on the COVID crisis in India??
I do not know, but the terror, for the moment has abated a wee bit.
The aircraft all ablaze and hurtling down at a terrifying speed has stabilised a bit and is cruising along.
What have been our scientific observations, as the crisis unfolds.
1. The epidemic is still raging in the USA and parts of Europe and Iran, the death toll staggering, economies crumbling and now even the middle aged being felled, not just the elderly. In America there is simply no light at the end of the tunnel. They did spot an orange glow, but it turned out to be trumps hair.
2. There is a discernible benefit of the universal BCG vaccination programme the world over.
All countries, India included (BCG since 1949) who have had a BCG vaccination programme are seeing fewer fatalities. America, Canada Italy, Spain, France even Iran (which started it’s programme only in 1984) all abandoned the universal vaccination since no TB was detected in these countries for decades. Africa, erstwhile USSR, Asia, Latin America perhaps spared from the death squad due to our programmes
Lucky Joes? We don’t know yet but cautious optimism.
3. Herd immunity: There is no way all of us on the planet are going to escape this virus.
We will get it for certain. But do we get it as a slow burn? Does it spread sub clinically or ASYMPTOMATICALLY? Do we have cross immunity against Covid due to the myriad bugs we are constantly infected with, some politicians and news anchors included?? Once 60 to 70% of the population infected and antibodies are generated the virus goes on to become just another virus.
The key motivation and goal of this Lock down is to prevent the FATAL AND LETHAL CASES developing so as not to overwhelm the health care system
Hence Love Modi or Hate Modi, you can’t fault this one historic decision of shutting the country down in one fell swoop. Nothing less would have worked.
Hence, the only solution, as the WHO recommends is TESTING, TESTING & TESTING…we need to adopt it aggressively
4. Back to Normal?: Early days, but if this trend continues and we do not see pneumonias and ARDS choking ventilators in the next couple of weeks, we may, just may, have dodged the bullet. So maybe when all the data is in the country May well be open. But there should be one non-negotiable once we get back on our feet.
Besides hygiene and social distancing which will now have to be part of our lives for the foreseeable future, once we get back into factories and farms there is one crack down that must necessarily cntinue
NO LARGE GATHERINGS FOR AT LEAST 6 MONTHS: No mass religious congregations absolutely. Reach out to followers at home using tech. No political gatherings where the hordes accumulate. Automatically this will translate into less hate speeches, less vitriol, less untruths, less noise. Think of the benefits to our mental health.
No sunburn, no rock concerts, no mass stadia sports.
We can’t afford it for now. Babu Azgaonkar will lose money but he’s promised to sacrifice in the national interest.
This crisis is far from over folks. The treacherous virus is still out there and you never know when it could strike again and in what form.
We need to focus on our economy for certain once the cloud lifts.
But we should never lose sight of the lessons we learnt from this crisis.
Of compassion, of solidarity, of service (our health care and sanitation workers), of fortitude.
If we truly cling to those lessons overcoming the economic shock should be a piece of cake.
Defeating the virus will be an eventual reality.
Defeating our inner demons????
Well I’m not betting on it… I’m just cautiously optimistic.
