According to new research published in Scientific Reports, the present El Niño event is leading to record-breaking average surface air temperatures in various parts of the world before diminishing this summer. According to researchers, there is a 90% probability that the global mean surface temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 would be the highest on record. The effect is felt in Southeast Asia, Alaska, the Caribbean Sea, and the Amazon.
A climatic pattern known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) controls how much heat is retained in the world’s seas. ENSO consists of two distinct phases: El Niño, which is warm and occurs when weak easterly trade winds carry warm water off the west coast of the Americas, and La Niña, which is cool and occurs when stronger winds drive warm surface water westward and cause colder deep water to rise to near-surface.
These stages shift approximately every 2-7 years. The ocean’s accumulated heat is released into the atmosphere during El Niño conditions, warming the air throughout the tropics and beyond. Since June 2023, Earth has been under El Niño conditions, which experts have already connected to temperatures that have broken records.
Researchers evaluated the effects of the present El Niño on global average surface air temperatures using data on current ENSO conditions, aerosol concentrations, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and existing temperature anomalies. Data from June 2023, when ENSO is currently forming, to July 2024, when it is expected to transit to a neutral state.
Based on anticipated sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the central Pacific, an area highly susceptible to ENSO variations, the researchers calculated the intensity of El Niño possibilities. According to their forecasts, sea surface temperature deviations between 1°C and 1.5°C for at least three months are considered moderate El Niño circumstances. In contrast, deviations larger than 1.5°C for at least three months are considered robust El Niño conditions.
Since August 2023, sea surface temperature increases have surpassed 1.5°C, making the current El Niño strong. According to climate scientists, the event will probably rank in the top five strongest ever seen. According to research, there is a 90% probability that the average surface air temperature worldwide will rise above records if current trends continue. Particularly vulnerable areas include the Amazon, Alaska, South China Sea, Bay of Bengal, Philippines, and Caribbean Sea.
According to scientists, high temperatures might cause a prolonged marine heat wave in Southeast Asia, which would hurt marine ecosystems and have an economic impact on coastal towns. They argue that whereas rising temperatures in the Amazon will raise the risk of extreme weather, wildfires, and drought, warming in Alaska might accelerate the rate of glacier retreat, permafrost thawing, and coastline erosion.
The current El Niño circumstances are intensifying the temperature rise that is already occurring due to climate change induced by humans by burning fossil fuels, which releases greenhouse gases that heat the Earth. So, future El Niños will probably continue to produce heat waves that break records as the climate warms.
