The Grand Old Party of India is back in the game. In one of the fiercely contested battles of 2023, the Congress won 136 seats, the biggest win for any party since 1989, when the party won 178 seats under Veerendra Patil’s leadership. The Congress’s vote share, too, reached a high of 42.9% — also the highest after 1989, when it won 43.76% of the votes polled. The incumbent BJP’s strength declined to 66 against 104 seats won in 2018.
There are several takeaways that are relevant in the context of the larger political battle in 2024. One, the win in Karnataka is a morale booster for the Congress party. After beating the BJP in Himachal Pradesh last winter, Congress was widely expected to win Karnataka. However, the scale of the victory – 136 seats with over 43 percent vote share and a 7 percent gap with the BJP – is a huge morale booster for the main national opposition party. But, 2023 is a turning point for Congress. After Karnataka, elections will be held in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh. After the grand success in Karnataka, Congress will be hoping to repeat 2018 and script a victory in all three states towards the end of this year.
Two, Hindutva has limited appeal when it comes to state elections. The results show that the BJP’s strategy of appealing to the Hindu voters cut little ice with voters.
Three, the verdict shows that governance matters more than anything else and people are ready to punish mis-governance. It also demonstrates that a cohesive and focused campaign by state leaders on local issues finds more resonance among voters than a campaign on national issues by national leaders.
Four, with regional parties stepping up efforts for opposition unity, ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Karnataka win will inevitably strengthen the Congress’ hands and give it greater bargaining power, in terms of alliances.
Five, everyday issues such as unemployment and inflation played a key role in the state elections. Across Karnataka, ground reports showed people complained about prices of LPG cylinders, and the government’s failure to generate employment. These issues are likely to dominate the public discourse. Perhaps the biggest lesson from Karnataka for the national parties is that the daily livelihood issues of the people are best served by local leaders.
Six, with Congress winning a crucial state in the South, Brand Rahul gets a big boost. Even if the victory was due to the combined efforts of two state leaders Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, the Karnataka election victory has boosted Rahul Gandhi’s image as it was one state where the Bharat Jodo Yatra appears to have had an electoral impact.
Lastly, the Karnataka elections demonstrated the importance of empowering local leaders. The incumbent BJP retired old warhorse Yediyurappa in 2021 and handed over the reins to Basavaraj Bommai. Bommai acted more as a figurehead of the central leadership and was hamstrung in taking crucial decisions in the interest of the state. On the other hand, Congress encouraged the leadership of Siddharamaiah, who has a pan-State appeal and can bring together a broader social coalition. It encouraged D.K. Shivakumar, a strong Vokkaliga leader with money and proven organisational skills. And they made Mallikarjun Kharge, a pan-State Dalit leader, the face of the Indian National Congress. They also gave tickets to locally powerful Lingayat leaders, and more importantly, they managed the ego clashes among these leaders well.
The outcome of the Karnataka elections offers lessons for both the ruling BJP and the main opposition Congress as they gear up for the high-stakes 2024 Lok Sabha battle.
