TEAM HERALD
MARGAO: In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls for the South Goa seat, the BJP had virtually banked on late Matanhy Saldanha to create a dent in the minority vote, especially in the minority dominated talukas of Salcete and Mormugao.
No doubt, Matanhy did manage to make inroads in some of the minority pockets, by polling around 17,000 votes, but that wasn’t enough for the BJP to win the South Goa seat, with Narendra Sawaikar losing by around 12,000 vote margin.
This time round, the BJP appears hoping for multiple splits in the minority vote bank and consolidation of its core voter base in the hinterland talukas in its bid to regain the South Goa seat, which it had last won in 1999.
Take the case of Salcete. As many as three elected representatives supporting the ruling government – Fisheries Minister Avertano Furtado, GVP supremo Mickky Pacheco and his Benaulim MLA Caitu Silva – have all descended down on the field to drum up support for Sawaikar’s candidature. Barring Navelim, the BJP has hardly any
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presence in Benaulim or Nuvem and party poll managers in private admit that additional votes for the BJP in these two minority segments will be a bonus for the party this time round.
Besides, the BJP leadership must be certainly hoping of a further split in the minority vote given the presence of Trinamool Congress candidate Churchill Alemao and sitting MP Francisco Sardinha’s son Shalom in the fray. Political analysts say that Shalom’s area of influence may be restricted to Curtorim segment, besides a few other pockets in the constituency. But the number of votes polled by this Independent candidate would only affect the Congress more than the BJP, sources said.
Again, the BJP campaign managers must be hoping that Churchill Alemao manages to make deep inroads in the minority pockets of Salcete. With the secular debate polarising the minority vote, the BJP must be hoping of a situation wherein Churchill garners a significant percentage of the secular vote in Salcete, which in the final analysis, benefit the party candidate.
Rebellion by Dabolim MLA Mauvin Godinho should ring in good news for the BJP, hoping for a split in the minority votes.
As expected, the BJP appears well set to perform well in Madkai and Sanvordem, besides Sanguem this time round. The BJP leadership may be tempted to further polarise the Hindu vote on the secular versus communalism debate. The party is also going all out to outwit the Congress in Ponda and Shiroda and not to mention Curchorem, though trends indicate that the stakes of the BJP are presently down in Canacona and Quepem segments.
But the real test for the BJP lies in the outcome of polling in minority pockets of Salcete and Mormugao – where the party managers must be certainly hoping for a multiple splits in the minority vote.
