the time you read this, the ground
situation may have altered either which way. This is being written at 2 pm when
50 percent of the results are not fully in. And since elections are about the
cruel or the joyous game of numbers, depending on which side you end up in, it
is indeed too close to call. The BJP, with its innate ability to win friends
and influence people, with a powerful government in the Centre, may still
extract a government from Independents and forces which have been opposed to
them, but that is a later story.
Let us look at an upsurge that has
happened, which is beyond numbers. And this is something which will hold
notwithstanding what time you are reading this. As we write this, 14 of BJP’s
sitting MLAs, out of 21 have lost their seats and it is not over yet.
If this isn’t a sign of a
desperate, angry land, using its last drop of energy to give an urgent message
“please leave” then what is? Admittedly, the Congress has not set the Mandovi
and Zuari on fire. Admittedly, the Goa Forward, a party shunned by the
Congress, taking the animosity between the two to damaging heights, has done
splendidly, damaging the BJP in three seats and admittedly the MGP, despite its
defeat in Priol and Ponda, have still won 3 seats. But the
cumulative effect of all of the above is that the mandate has
swung away from the BJP.
As things stand now (and readers
will excuse us if there is a slight discrepancy between figures in our copy and
the tabulated results, due to very tight production schedules), the Congress
currently stands at 13 and the BJP at 11, plus independent Govind Gawde, with
very early leads in Cortalim, Vasco and St Cruz. There is very little to choose
in terms of numbers. But this score has to be read with how much BJP has lost,
than how much it has won.
Losing the moral high ground to
rule, in a cut throat dog eat dog, or horse eat horse (inspired by the phrase
horse-trading), does not mean the BJP has lost hope of ruling. It can
still get the numbers and will come close to 15. If the MGP swings to the BJP
and so do the two other independents Rohan Khaunte (if he wins) and Prasad
Gaonkar, the BJP is through, even without debating which way Goa Forward will
go.
If the Congress ends up at the same
number (15) and the Goa Forward and the MGP with 6 seats together, back it, we
may see a Congress government with a consensus Chief Minister.
And yet, do not rule out the
alternative of the MGP, sensing the situation demanding Chief Ministership from
the Congress.
