Do ZP poll results hold the key to State Municipality, Assembly elections?

Zilla or District Panchayat (ZP) elections, which just a decade back went by largely as a politically neutral and a low-key affair, recently had more than their share of spotlight in their latest round. 

The general perception was that there was much at stake and their results would forebode the direction of coming elections – Municipality and Assembly. The reason, many observe, is that these local polls are increasingly becoming a platform to create a support base for political parties.   

Therefore, a fierce battle was fought with 200 candidates in the fray for 49 seats; and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) yet again stamped a saffron victory.

But does it actually spell advantage-BJP for the coming state Municipality and Assembly elections?  

Alaknanda Shringare, faculty at Goa University, specialising in democratic governance, public administration and rural development, is not very sure. “I cannot say with authority whether the ZP elections are going to be a deciding factor for the next elections. If you look at past experience, BJP’s ZP performance in 2015 was good but it did not affect its outcome in the 2017 Assembly polls, where the electoral verdict swung in favour of Congress,” she said. 

Another reason she refrains from taking these district polls as a barometer for other polls, is their low voter turnout. It barely touched 56 per cent, with seats like Velim logging a turnout of as low as 38.15 per cent. For the Lok Sabha or Assembly elections, Goa has seen voter turnout go up to as high as over 80 per cent. 

These polls just do not infuse enthusiasm among the State’s voters. Mostly due to lack of awareness about them. 

“What I have noted, even among educated people, is that there is not much awareness about what the ZP is or what their functions are. People go to vote but they don’t know what their (ZP) roles or functions are. But when it comes to Panchayat and other elections, they are very sure of every aspect of it,” said Shringare. 

For long, ZP representatives have worked with watered down powers given to them by their State. Panchyati Raj Act devolves 26 functions/subjects to them but in reality they are constrained to work on never more than 5-8 of them. 

For instance, a Comptroller Audit General (CAG) report of 2008, states, “Only five of the 26 functions to be devolved on the ZPs have been devolved on them.” 

In such a milieu, those operating at ZP level have their hands tied and are constantly at the mercy of the MLA in their constituency.  

This could prove to be a major challenge for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidate Hanzel Fernandes, the first-time winner who helped his party open their account from Benaulim in South Goa. He, however, seems unfazed and has set his sight on the task ahead of him. 

“People wanted change, and someone who could help them out. We had convinced them (people) that we will do something for them and that is what is going to happen now. We have already started the process. Each day we are looking at problems people are facing and have started meeting officials. We will come out with a plan and put them into action,” he said. 

Fernandes has already set a target of building a healthcare centre, on the lines of Delhi’s Mohalla Clinic, in his constituency by the end of 2021. He said that the preparations for the Goa Municipality and Assembly polls have been kicked into motion with selection of “worthy candidates”.

According to him, his solitary win has buoyed sentiments in his party. “It has created a lot of enthusiasm and hope for AAP supporters, and also for our candidates who have lost. It shows them if we work a little bit harder we will definitely win the upcoming Assembly and Municipality elections,” he said.

Shringare feels a large portion of Congress’ votes in the ZP polls was cut by AAP. Congress, which had not participated in the district polls in 2015, was routed this time winning just four of the 37 seats it contested. 

Introspecting into Congress’ debacle in the latest local polls, Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco, Congress MLA from Curtorim, blamed Congress’ internal issues for it.    

“There are no doubts about the opposition being in disarray. Congress did not do anything to take advantage of the (current) situation. If they (Congress) keep the field open, anybody can come in (on AAP and others eating into its votes). They (opposition) are playing second fiddle to the ruling government. They are allowing the ruling government to succeed in their games,” he said.

Lorenco said organisational glitches within the party were very clearly reflecting in Congress’ dismal electoral performances.     

“Instead of fighting the enemy they are ready to teach lessons to their own people. Congress has been made into a lobby of a few people. There is no freedom of opinion. The only people who have opinion are those with affinity to the guys who are ruling the roost. Their morale (those heading the party) doesn’t matter to the voters; they are completely at a different level. They have still not learned from the reality,” he said. 

The Congress MLA believes corrective steps, even at this stage, would help in improving the party’s prospects in the coming elections. “They have got ample of opportunity to do it even now,” he said. 

He does not expect the ZP polls to have a far reaching impact on the two major elections in the coming years. He confirmed finances to carry out work at ZP levels have always been a major constraint. 

Though, recent overtures of the Fifteenth Finance Commission hold promise for local bodies operating at the Panchayat level. It’s interim report has proposed an allocation of Rs 60,750 crore for local bodies in the current fiscal and a share of 15-30 per cent to ZPs with two-tier system. Goa has a two-tier Panchayat.

However, what happens at the State level will depend on the State Finance Commission, which studies the finances of Panchayats in the State and advises the Governor on how to distribute State revenues between the State and Panchayat bodies. 

Just like States devolve limited powers to ZPs, funds granted to them also are a pittance. 

Lorenco said when he was working at the ZP level, from early 2000 to 2008, grants from the State never exceeded Rs3 crore. It is a well-known fact that ZP representatives are forever crunched for funds for doing any meaningful work in their constituencies to strengthen their political base. With overlapping powers, there is always a clash for control between leaders of Panchayats, ZPs and MLAs

“Yes, there will be such situations. They are part and parcel of our system and need correction,” said Lorenco.

And with reigns of the State and most Panchayats in its hand, the BJP is likely to go for higher devolution of power and finance to Panchayati institutions.    

Sadanand Shet Tanavade, BJP State president in Goa, said the process has already begun. “They (State) have to do (allocate more powers and finance to grass root level bodies). Now, after elections it has been done. They have been given some powers (to those working at the ZP level),” he said. 

Though, the newly appointed president of the ruling party, is not sure whether the State is likely to open up its kitty for ZP spending at a time when it is itself squeezed for funds due to lower State revenues. State finances have been adversely hit because of dwindling revenues from tourism and mining.

However, most believe the upbeat morale among BJP workers due to its recent wins in polls could work the magic for the party in the coming elections. “The morale among party workers is very high with a stupendous win of 19 out of 25 seats (76 per cent) in North Goa and 14 out of 17 seats contested (82.4 per cent) in South Goa,” he beamed. 

According to Shringare , BJP being in power at the Centre, the State and now at the ground level will, in itself, be an “edge” over others in coming polls. Other factors which could move the needle on the party’s poll prospects are the party’s organisational capability, stability within the party and the tiding over of leadership crisis that had reared its head after the demise of the former Chief Minister (late) Manohar Parrikar.     

She also pointed to the absence of a strong challenger to the BJP in the State with the Congress in a deep organisational morass. 

“Congress needs work on building its organisational capability which it had in the past. They are connected with the grassroots but somewhere that connection is weakening. They need to strengthen their party otherwise they will fail. There are too many aspirants and leaders in Congress. There is no one face for guidance within the Congress. The party has to resolve its issues internally too,” she concluded.