Team Herald
PANJIM: In the middle of all the buzz and the financial hiccups nationally, Goa has actually managed to pull itself out of its financial quagmire and is looking at a revenue surplus at the closing of FY ’17-18. Perhaps even more importantly, its GDP at the end of the year will be over Rs 70,000 crore, double of what it was at the end of ’12-13 when the mining slump had taken Goa’s GDP to Rs 36,000 crore. This, to the uninitiated, is broadly the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within the State as well as the wealth generated and created.
According to number crunchers and sources in the Chief Minister’s Office (CMO), who are actually doing the math and shared the financial workings with Herald, there are three important parameters that reflect financial recovery.
a) The total borrowings will be well under the permissible limit of Rs 1900 crore. The borrowings accrued due to the Statutory Liquid Ratio to be maintained by banks for placing funds in government bonds will be to the tune of Rs 1200 crore, while borrowings from NABARD will be about Rs 375 crore. At the same time the liability of old loans is going down, interest components being cleared. From September to December this year Rs 632 cr will be paid back with the following breakup. September – Rs 211 cr, October – Rs 56 cr, November – Rs 275 cr and December – Rs 90 cr. These monthly liabilities, according to a CMO source, are based on previous borrowings drawn at the same month in previous years. The loan liability, according to those in the Chief Minister’s finance team will be a very healthy 20% of GDP (Debt to GDP ratio).
b) The GDP of the State, which reflects the wealth and value of the treasury, has shown steady growth. In 2011-12 it was around Rs 42,000 cr which slumped to Rs 36,000 cr during the mining crunch, before getting back on the growth path marginally in 2013-14 with 49,000 cr. Across ’14-15 and ’15-16 it rose to stand at Rs 62,000 cr and is expected to go up to Rs 70,000 cr. This growth has been, among other factors, the steady support from the Centre and funding for specific projects. The approximate Rs 12,000 cr revenue will come largely from the State’s own internal generation of Rs 7500 cr and other components, States share of central taxes of about Rs 2200 cr. In addition the funds for fixed schemes is about Rs 500 cr with an additional Rs 500 cr expected for specific projects like the Super Speciality block at GMC (Rs 120 cr).
c) The books are getting balanced monthly: On this Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar, speaking to Herald said, “The monthly revenues and expenditure is almost the same at Rs 1000 cr. Of this Rs 600 is revenue expenditure and Rs 400 is capital expenditure. So the books are balanced and we are expecting a revenue surplus by the close of the financial year. Incidentally of the Rs 1000 cr, salaries and pensions still consume Rs 280 cr, or in real terms, about Rs 250 cr, if one takes the PF component out. However, the Chief Minister feels that sales tax collections will offset the salary and pension burden completely.
“A revenue surplus is very much on the cards. And if you ask, what is the biggest difference between the last term and this, I can easily say, that it is financial stability. We are far more comfortable,” Parrikar said.
