There will be winners today but will people win?

Team Herald

PANJIM: After the deluge of exit polls, which coronated the BJP in Goa, today is the day of the reality check. By late afternoon, the people would have spoken, but politics would have taken over. And make no mistake, this will go down to the wire. The Goa results are indeed wide open.

Judgement Day will also reveal who will form the next government in the State, whether the incumbent BJP will retain power or, will Congress bounce back. Wait and watch Saturday will also answer the question of whether new entrant AAP will shock the electorate, and whether the State’s oldest regional outfit, MGP, will spring a surprise? 

Counting for the 40 Assembly constituencies will begin at 8.00 am in Panjim and Margao, with Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar’s fate among the first to be decided. All results are likely to be announced by 2.30 pm, if no candidate seeks counting of the VVPAT slips. The counting will also reveal the fate of the 38 sitting MLAs in the fray, many of who are looking for a third or fourth term.

The 2017 Assembly elections are being considered as a prestige issue for the ruling BJP, especially for Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, the former Chief Minister, who is eyeing a return to State politics and campaigned extensively in the State. BJP has gambled by inducting and fielding two former Congressmen on their party tickets, while encouraging a revolt from its loyal karyakartas.  

On the other hand, Congress that faced a humiliating defeat in the 2012 polls is aiming for a revival. Some solace for the party is that the exit polls indicate a better performance for the Congress, that fielded 60 percent new faces.

The third national party in the fray, AAP, intends to grab a chunk of the seats, while for Goa’s oldest regional party, MGP, that after almost a decade has not tied up with a national party but with a regional formation, it will be a test of survival.  

The ruling BJP contested from 36 seats and extended support to independent candidates in Navelim, Priol, Velim and Benaulim.  

Congress, after snubbing alliance overtures from NCP and Goa Forward, contested in 37 seats and extended support to Independent candidate in Porvorim, United Goans nominees in Panjim, Cortalim and Goa Forward in Siolim.

Former alliance partners in government, MGP in alliance with GSM and SS contested in 34 seats, with MGP alone in 24 seats. GSM, a new regional outfit formed by the rebel RSS group, could play a crucial role in dividing the BJP vote bank.

Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) contested in 18 seats and regional outfits Goa Forward fielded candidates in four seats, United Goans in two, Goa Vikas Party in five and another 25 candidates from other parties are in fray. There are 58 independent candidates that include five sitting MLAs including two Ministers. 

Exit poll results released on Thursday predict a hung House, but give BJP the edge. Should there be a fractured mandate, the role of smaller parties and independent candidates will attain importance. Both BJP and Congress are confident of emerging victorious and forming the government.

The fate of several political bigwigs, especially some who faced embarrassing defeats in 2012, like Ravi Naik, Subhash Shirodkar, Churchill Alemao, Joaquim Alemao, Felipe Neri Rodrigues, Damodar Naik, Rajesh Patnekar, Manohar Azgaonkar, Vijay Pai Khot and Isidore Fernandes, will be known on Saturday. After a gap of ten years, former Congress Chief Minister Luizinho Faleiro is also making an attempt to return to the Assembly from Navelim.  

Political pundits suggest that BJP’s Laxmikant Parsekar, Rajendra Arlekar, Dayanand Mandrekar and Dilip Parulekar are shaky.

The 35-day long time given for postal ballot voting is expected to play a key role, especially in areas where the winning or losing margin is going to be close.