he fault lines within South Asia, a region riven by traumatic Partitions and wars, may be coming back to haunt the nations that live with this troubled and shared legacy. The regime change in Bangladesh after Sheikh Hasina fled the country has been the immediate catalyst in this regard.
The takeover by the new student-led dispensation, with Nobel Laureate Md Yunus as the head of the government, has sparked a reassessment of the country’s political history since it gained independence from Pakistan in 1971. And any relook at this history will involve re-examining Bangladesh’s changing dynamics with India and Pakistan.
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The country’s relations with India have grown frosty in the days after Hasina’s exit. It is widely believed in Bangladesh that India had silently helped the former Prime Minister keep a vice grip on power even as her popularity plummeted and she grew more dictatorial. The fact that on fleeing from Dhaka, she found a safe haven in New Delhi under the Indian government’s protection would have only served to strengthen this perception. The consistent and alarming attacks on Hindu minorities is both a reflection of India’s rising unpopularity as also the growing religious fundamentalism flourishing there.
On the back of all these developments come three incidents that point to how relations between India and Bangladesh will pan out and what India should do to ensure that the baggage of Hasina doesn’t dog the country’s dealings with the current regime in Bangladesh. The first instance is that of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s post on Victory Day (December 16), which said: “Today, on Vijay Diwas, we honour the courage and sacrifices of the brave soldiers who contributed to India’s historic victory in 1971. Their selfless dedication and unwavering resolve safeguarded our nation and brought glory to us.” Predictably, this drew a sharp reaction from Bangladesh’s current ruling dispensation. Asif Nazrul, Bangladesh interim government’s law adviser, reportedly wrote, “16 December 1971, was the day of Bangladesh’s victory. India was an ally in this victory, nothing more.”
At a time when the relations with the neighbour are particularly chilly, if the PM should have
couched his message in such terms is debatable, but what is beyond doubt is how Bangladesh is revisiting India’s role in its independence. This should be a cause for some brainstorming in the South Block.
The second significant development came in the form of a now-deleted Facebook post by Mahfuj Alam, an aide to Yunus, which shared a map of Bangladesh that showed areas in West Bengal, Tripura and Assam as parts of the country. Understandably, India has lodged a strong protest with the Bangladesh authorities, but the fact that this post was shared by someone so close to Yunus is also a pointer to the sentiments about India in the highest echelons of government there.
The third development, also the most significant, is the meeting that took place between Yunus and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif this week in Cairo on the sidelines of the D-8 summit. Yunus reportedly told Sharif that it was high time that the vexed issues between Bangladesh and Pakistan got sorted and that “It would be nice to resolve things once and for all for the future generations.” This, coming from the head of a country that faced one of the most horrific genocides in recent history offers a lot of food for thought. According to official estimates, between 300,000 and 400,000 Bangladeshis were killed by Pakistani soldiers and pro-Pakistan militia in the upheaval of 1971 and about an equal number of women were raped. Within months of Hasina’s exit, this olive branch being extended to Pakistan is a significant pointer to what lies ahead for both the countries, as also for India. The two leaders also spoke about reviving SAARC, which has been dormant for years because of the hostility between India and Pakistan.
The writing, therefore, is clearly on the wall for New Delhi. Bangladesh, once an accommodating neighbour in India’s control, is like a planet which once it has left the orbit, keeps spinning further and further away from its axis. India is already grappling with China and Pakistan as two troublesome neighbours who have forged their own geopolitical ties to counter India. If Bangladesh also joins this power axis, India faces the unappetising prospect of being hemmed in on multiple fronts by nations that are hostile to the country’s interests. Even as it ramps up its brand of Hindutva, how the Modi government handles this challenge from a politically resurgent and hostile Bangladesh may determine the power dynamics in South Asia in the years to come.
