Parrikar’s best bet in Goa: Less of Modi
Manohar Parrikar’s best hope of winning both the Lok Sabha seats in Goa is to take the campaign as much away from Narendra Modi as possible. Elections are nothing, if not soaked in irony infused into every pore of the poll process. Parrikar’s challenge is to deliver the two seats to Modi’s national kitty by keeping the minds of the voters away from the politics that Modi propagates.
As senior leaders fret and fume with Jaswant Singh doing the unthinkable of contesting as an independent against the BJP from Barmer, in little Goa, Parrikar hopes that his schemes and doles and announcements made on election eve, will cut through the religion and caste barrier. The monies disbursed through the Griha Aadhar, Laadli Laxmi schemes, the bill to give back properties granted to families by the Portuguese, which would ostensibly settle the evacuee properties of Mayem, and the one to regularise illegal properties, especially in the migrant dominated Margao, Zuari nagar and Mapusa, were all aimed at securing the “me first country later voter”. It is this confidence that Parrikar is riding on.
But Goa is a State whose political goalposts have changed. Parrikar needs to recognise it. In 2012, the surge of anger and disappointment against the Congress made him the beneficiary. In 2014, he faces an electorate, especially in South Goa, who, wanted maximum returns in minimum time on their biggest ever political investment. The returns haven’t happened at the pace they wanted. That is why the hidden ghosts of communalism and the scepticism have returned, giving the Goa elections a communal narrative. However when the Congress sets out to campaign, the radar is not on Modi or on communalism but on Parrikar’s performance . There is an irony here too, because Parrikar’s best bet is to take on a debate on his performance rather than answer for Modi’s sins of omission and commission.
The battle for Goa will therefore hinge around issues that are Goan, on people who promise to be the voice of Goa in Delhi, which is non-existent, on electing an MP who will find representation in central committees and organisations.
At the same time, in this complex cauldron, the Congress understands that a dash of the communal sauce, can seal the deal. Sri Ram Sene’s, controversially communal chief Pramod Muthalik’s brief entry in the BJP was greeted with more glee by the Congress as it realised that this would be huge campaign point, especially in the minority Salcete belt. Parrikar was quick off the block and frantically worked the phones to ensure that Muthalik remained outside the BJP, an indication of how much the Goa Chief Minister wants the Goa election to be about him and not about either Narendra Modi or the communal baggage that he comes to the table with.
His backroom move to field Churchill Alemao and perhaps also Shalom Sardinha, is not at all one to split “secular” votes, because neither Alemao or Sardinha can call themselves “secular” in the narrow context of how the Congress sees it. What Parrikar is simply trying to do is to increase the number of choices that the anti Parrikar voter will have to prevent consolidation towards the Congress. And this anti-Parrikar vote is not a secular vote but a disappointed vote.
Parrikar’s way forward is to reduce the Modi factor to zero in the run up to the elections and make it a straight battle between his performance versus those who feel he hasn’t performed. He perhaps has a better chance here because the independent MLAs who are still with him, will find this space much more comfortable and he needs them desperately especially in South Goa.
This is politics at its cruel best. Parrikar was the first Chief Minister to back Modi to lead the election campaign on the eve of the Goa National Executive. Today his best chance of serving him is not to invoke his name at all.
