With the thumping victory in Haryana polls, and emerging within sniffing distance of the half way 144 mark in Maharashtra, both firsts for the BJP, the Narendra Modi – Amit Shah combination has altered the macro course of Indian politics by changing inter and intra party politics.
In Maharashtra, the BJP has more than doubled its tally from 46 seats in 2009 (in alliance with Shiv Sena) to 122 seats in 2014, with smaller allies. The Modi-Shah brigade had supreme confidence that it would win handsomely and therefore demanded 130 seats in pre-election dealings with the Sena. In many ways the Shiv Sena’s tactics of attacking the BJP imploded, leaving it red faced and tamely looking for a face saving backdoor patch-up even before counting started Sunday. The best ever performance of the BJP to emerge as the largest party is all the more credible since it only had its bastion in Vidharba and virtually no rural level party base in most of Maharashtra. Though the outgoing chief minister Prithviraj Chavan was graceful in defeat and accepted responsibility, since Sonia and Rahul Gandhi strategy of holding back was a virtual surrender, even as the defeat of Konkan strongman Narayan Rane, was unanticipated. His weeping son is well remembered for smashing the poll booth while entering Goa, at the height of the Ranes’ arrogance in the Konkan.
The BJP was prompt in declaring that it would have BJP CMs in both Maharashtra and Haryana, leaving the Sena to pick up the crumbs, even before dialogue started.
With a clear majority in Haryana with the non Jat vote, BJP will form the first ever government, with the Indian National Lok Dal of Om Prakash Chautala, possibly throwing in a Jat deputy chief minister. The BJP’s estranged partner HJC secured just 2 seats.
The third poll position for the Congress in the Maharashtra-Haryana assembly elections and the new face Modi-Shah leadership’s victory now and in the 2014 General Elections has altered the matrix of Indian politics in many ways. One, it has firmly installed the BJP as the strongest national party, with virtually an all India presence with government in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Goa except the South, Bengal and North East.
Simultaneously, the Modi-Shah duo have altered the intra party rubrics of the BJP by instating a new personality cult, — more a Congress typology — from its cadre based ethos. It has also systematically swept out the old guard, while sticking to the old rubrics of the RSS and Sangh Parivar. More ironically, it has ushered in the Congress High Command culture to decide on the alliance with the Shiv Sena and the choice of chief ministers in both states, by rationalizing Modi’s persona as responsible for the victories, but unconvincingly asserting that its parliamentary board is supreme.
Modi and Shah have also rewarded other second rung leaders like Rajnath Singh, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Arun Jaitley and L K Advani supporters such as Sushma Swaraj for putting their faith in them with plum ministerial positions at the Centre, asserting that Modi alone is supreme.
Another significant fallout has been, the BJP has chanced upon the duo as its election trump card, but also made the BJP a nemesis for regional parties. Years ago the BJP had rode piggy back on many of these very, smaller parties by effecting clever alliances, to make a debut in many state assemblies as a minor partner, as also in Goa. This trend will send a shiver down the spines of their partners in Telangana, Andhra, Punjab and Odisha.
Though a few political watchers were ready to write the epitaph on Modi’s short lived fading charisma, after the bad showing in by-poll, the Maharashtra and Haryana victories have shown that voters have high expectations from a party that sent out strong and decisive poll message, through its brand of politics that believes in grandstanding, loads of rhetoric and makes locally relevant appeals. Caste and religious equations though not relevant have been trumped for the time being with higher aspirations of rural and middle class India.
The moot question is –after such mandates will the BJP under the insignia of ‘disruptive innovation’ of Modi-Shah combine, deliver amidst the hype? Or will the helpless electorate live through another bout of five year illusion and usher in the Congress, which now has to work from the bottom up to rebuild itself from the grassroots?
