BINAYAK DATTA
This is a unique war of sorts! Seems to be a war where only the Is rael and US Administrations between themselves, seem to have been convinced of its necessity – “a short (4- week) war”, one which hard ly has a backing in any of the two country’s people (per in ternal polls published)! A change of regime, (over throwing theocrat Ali Khame nei) and replacing him with a more pliable alternative of the “sponsors’ choice” with out the few tantrums of a mighty Iran, the 2nd largest and 2nd-most powerful West Asian country (all together encapsulated in the expres sion an oil-rich nation with “nuclear ambitions”)! Speaking of oil and en ergy-sufficiency a possible view could be, with the US producing around 13 million barrels of crude a day against a consumption of around 20, Iran could then be suita bly “Venezuela’d” for its 5+! Not surprisingly of course, a lot of the public attention veered away from the Ep stein files and the shelved tariffs post the US Supreme Court orders! The US bases across GCC became immediate soft tar gets for the hordes of Shahed drones of Iran and they did a fast job! The US retaliated to day, sinking an Iran warship close to our waters, near the Sri Lanka coast killing 80 sailors! Caution! My Take: I’ll rather leave this complicated subject to defence-pundits and dwell more on my theme from here-on! First the mysteries (to me)! The US administration supposedly in the co-pilot’s seat, why did we see a cha os all over now – US expats (nearly a million in all) want ing to return to their homes in US? My second mystery was, when Netanyahu was receiving Modi (whom he addressed characteristically as a “great friend of Israel” and “a champion of Indi an Israeli alliance”,..) at the Knesset, just a couple of days before the strike he could have shared broad intents, of the imminent strike, so that emergent logistic actions could discreetly start earlier, (a day gone is gone for ever!) we have one crore of Indians staying in West Asia, now on tenterhooks, no idea when they’re back! Whatever the real objec tives, it’s three full days now, 1,000 lives lost, the Iran leadership almost all missile down, 700 tankers jammed up outside the Strait of Hor muz, it’s a supreme chaos all around! Iran, I understood, pro duces 400 Shahed drones a day and that they still carry a stock of 80,000 such and an inventory of around 300 bal listic missiles, according to a senior defence analyst on one of the foremost national channels here. Add to this the unquantified hi-tech surveil lance equipment and arms and ammunitions from Rus sia, China, North Korea and Turkiye which would almost certainly find their way to West Asia in support of Iran, although I do not see most of them joining in for actual combat, Russia, because of its preoccupation at Ukraine and China for its business relations and prospects with some of the countries on the other side! Iran of course did the next best act – it spread the conflict far and wide fast throughout West Asia. From political perspec tives, I think the death of Khamenei has passed off rather uneventfully. The fact that his son, another hardlin er has been named his suc cessor only symbolises, Iran is not willing to gift a “victo ry” at all to the other side! Do all of this point to a short 4-week-campaign? I doubt. Where are we then, (apart from till now, the “tight ropes” of diplomacy!) A) Investments: We have around $2.4billion of investments in Israel from the private and public sec tor together. This includes the investments in the Haifa Port. We have a $120 million investment in the Chabahar Port in Iran statedly a tre mendously strategic logistic initiative and we have a trade surplus with Iran of more than $1.2 billion last year. B) Imports: We im port requirements of po tassic fertilisers from Israel around $150 million and we have huge defence purchases from them as well. C) Logistics given that we reverted back to West Asian oil, with today’s clo sure of the Strait of Hormuz for tankers (apart from those for Russia and China, sus tained friends of Iran), we stare at significantly high er costs along with further weakening of the rupee. D) Human Resources: A crore of Indians today work and live in West Asian coun tries. Their safety is a crucial. E) Flight diversions & costs: Flights might have to be detoured from the West ern countries to reach India and further. Again costs. Whereas our relational flux with the US is well known, our diplomatic relations with Iran started way-back in 1950. Indo-Iranian relations were always consistently cordial given the ancient connects between the Persian civilisa tion and the Indus Valley even more currently, on the face of the many skirmishes with Pa kistan. Our ties with Israel are relatively new – from Janu ary 1992, basically trades in improved arms and farm-nu trition and plant-protection commodities and technology. The ties have of late greatly enhanced with their propos als for a NATO-type alliance, a proposed hexagon alliance, comprising of Israel, India, Greece, Cyprus, the UAE and one more nation from Africa, with collective security voice and mandates. It will be nice provided however individual ambitions of primacy do not play it down! I’ll keep this parked for more discussions ahead. Way Forward: Where as I do not see great lever age-possibilities with any of these three powers, (regard less of the “friendship” they so often speak of) and also in the absence of a structured grouping of global-south who could be together heard like the non-aligned nations of yore, it’s best to maintain an image of equal-proximity with both sides, go on per suading the three parties to come to the table, objectives: Only peace without specific primacy, desisting from con demnation of any one party for the strikes. This war is not going to end soon, as I see it now! And before I part, India as a nation, should continue to be seen as a morally strong humane world-power taking a decisive lead, opening con stant talks, facilitating, re-en ergising institutions like the UN, the WTO, the climate change, for example, restor ing that sense of discipline in world order. Each nation has much to lose otherwise – nothing to gain. (The author is a retired finance professional)
