The poll date for the 2017 Assembly elections is about six months away, but for the BJP and the main face of its campaign, Manohar Parrikar, the days of reckoning are the next six weeks, where it needs to bring the old order back in the party and firm up its alliances. For the first time in its five year term, is the BJP in Goa worried, that it’s in- house problems may prove to be telling blow to its future, much more than the criticism its government has received on its functioning.
The Defence Minister is in Goa for the weekend and he will be back again next week, to protect his citadel and he will not have the Indian Armed Forces to support him. His Goa unit has already upped the ante by saying the 2017 elections will be a referendum on the BJP’s overall rule, which it well might. With a tough fight in Punjab and UP not yet within its grasp, the national BJP is looking at Goa to at least share bragging rights in the national political pace.
The issues at hand are two-fold. Protect the BJP’s alliance with the MGP and minimize the impact of the breakaway RSS faction and the BBSM combine which has vowed to work against BJP candidates.
The first objective may be fulfilled but the question is at what cost. Unlike in 2012, when there was an anti-Congress wave blowing towards the BJP, the ruling party now needs a fresh gust beneath its sails. The alliance with the MGP will however come with a price. Not only will it have to sacrifice a minimum of 12 seats, with MGP driving a hard bargain to hike it to 14 seats, it might even have to give up a seat or two where it has a sitting MLA. And with MGP enroute to getting at least one Congress MLA, to contest on its ticket- Pandurang Madkaikar- with one more Congress and one independent MLA on the anvil, the BJP might find itself giving seats to candidates, it earlier expected to fight against.
The second objective is to reduce the potential damage that the BBSM can do by asking its cadres to support BJP’s opponents in over 30 constituencies. The danger here is that the BBSM will take decisions, not based on ideology, logic or even on its core issue of supporting MoI. It may simply back the candidate likely to cause most damage to the BJP in a particular constituency, irrespective of which party. This is where the BJP’s own organisational strength and the grass root work Parrikar may have done, will be put to test. Crucially, Mr Parrikar has to start all over again in some places or, at the very least, reconnect with party cadre. Cadre support is something he may have taken for granted till this crisis erupted. Secondly, after he left for Delhi, he has not had the time to meet party workers across constituencies, whose role will be vital in the booths and panchayats as they come face to face with the BBSM and the anti BJP cadre of the rebel RSS.
Quite literally, it is back to the barracks, a defence term, which is applicable for the Defence Minister’s defence of Goa. He needs to go back to his foot soldiers and reconnect with party workers and then of course pull off the MGP alliance without giving too many seats. On a lighter note, battling insurgents in Kashmir may actually be a tad easier for Mr Parrikar, than this.
