It was not an easy task for a Nitish Kumar 4.0 to happen, but defying predictions, he now prepares himself to be anointed as Chief Minister of Bihar again. In fact, if Kumar is able to complete this term, he will become the longest-serving Chief Minister of Bihar, breaking the record set by the 18-year tenure of Bihar’s first CM, Shri Krishna Sinha. In fact Kumar will be sworn in as Chief Minister for the 7th time.
Though the performance of the Janata Dal United (JDU) this election has slipped down drastically by it winning 43 seats as against 71, five years ago and by virtue of this has become a junior partner in Bihar’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA), it will manage to retain the Chief Minister’s chair as the now senior partner – Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – cannot afford to upset the apple cart and allow Kumar to jump ship to the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagatbandhan camp. Even the senior leadership of the BJP, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has already announced publicly that the Chief Minister of Bihar will be Kumar.
BJP, which had won 53 seats in 2015, has managed to scale up to 74. Political pundits feel that it was Modi’s charisma that reflected in the Bihar results. Bihar women voters did turn out in big numbers despite the scare of Covid-19 to vote for the BJP, cutting across religion and caste lines. The voter turnout this year was 57.05 per cent, marginally higher than the 56.66 per cent of the 2015 Assembly elections. The imposition of prohibition of liquor in the State, direct money transfer, Ujjwala yojna, drinking water lines, etc, played a massive role which negated the 15-year anti-incumbency factor.
Defying exit polls predictions the result was extremely close. The NDA, which was always in the lead, no matter how slim, emerged a winner with 125 seats, with BJP winning 74 of these, JDU 43, Vikassheel Insaan Party 4 and Hindustan Awaam Party (Secular) 4. This put NDA just above the requisite 122 majority mark needed to form the government. RJD and its allies have won 110 seats. RJD finished as the single-largest party with 75 seats, while the Congress won a mere 19 seats, down from 27. Of the 29 constituencies that the Left parties had contested, they won in 16, with the CPI (ML-Liberation) winning 12 of them. Meanwhile, Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party has just a single seat. BJP’s vote share stands at 19.5 per cent, JD (U) won 15.4 per cent, RJD 23.1 per cent and Congress 9.5 per cent.
The Mahagatbandhan or Grand Alliance, led by the RJD and its young leader Tejashwi Yadav, who preferred not to use the posters of his father Lalu Prasad or his mother Rabri Devi both ex-chief ministers, had been hoping that the exit polls come true and Kumar is unseated, but it didn’t happen. The Mahagatbandhan comprises the RJD, Congress and Left parties, and most exit polls had given the RJD-led alliance a clear edge over the NDA.
With Bihar in the bag, BJP’s next target will be further east, which is West Bengal. BJP will face a tough battle there against the Trinamool Congress led by WB Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee next year. A victory in Bihar therefore will be a shot in the arm for the saffron party. For a party that lacks leadership in Bengal, apart from other obstacles like factional feuds and a miniscule traditional vote bank, it is a tall wall to climb. Eyes will also be on the exit poll predictions which went horribly wrong in the Bihar elections.
