Even though the duck in the troubled Karnataka political waters appears to be sailing smoothly on the top, the paddling beneath the water surface would be brisk to keep itself afloat. Seventy-eight-year-old BS Yediyurappa, the fourth term Chief Minister of Karnataka, will be celebrating two years as Chief Minister on July 26 but under the current circumstances, this time it may not be a happy anniversary. In his current term he, who has a fairly good support of the Lingayat community, has faced open rebellion from the party against the alleged intervention of his son BY Vijayendra in the administration.
Lingayats today are found predominantly in the State of Karnataka, especially in north and central Karnataka with a sizeable population native to south Karnataka. Lingayats have been estimated to be about 20 per cent of Karnataka’s population and about 10 per cent of Maharashtra’s population. For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) it will not be easy to replace BS Yediyurappa as they were able to do so in Uttarakhand earlier this month where they replaced Tirath Singh Rawat and installed Pushkar Singh Dhami within four months. Also, Karnataka is up for Assembly polls in 2023.
While the BJP President JP Nadda announced that “there is no crisis in Karnataka”, political pundits believe that the transition of power could be smooth and talks are already on to pick a leader and replace the present Chief Minister. While it will be a big task for the party to replace Lingayat strongman Yediyurappa, the BJP leadership may not be averse to look beyond the community, the major vote bank for BJP in Karnataka. As of now, the frontrunners come from the Lingayat, Vokkaliga and Brahmin communities.
Lately, BY Vijayendra has also met the BJP senior leadership and is believed to have campaigned for himself for the Chief Minister’s post. As Yediyurappa’s age and health are also some factors possibly driving the change, the national leadership may go for a young CM this time. Another crucial factor will be the community as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) enjoys the massive support of the Lingayat community in the State. On the other hand, the State has not seen a Brahmin Chief Minister since 1988, after Ramakrishna Hegde.
Meanwhile, Union Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliamentary Affairs Pralhad Joshi, whose name is doing the rounds as Yediyurappa’s possible successor, said that the BJP top leadership has not spoken to him about it, and it is only the media which is discussing the matter. Another national joint general secretary of the party BL Santosh’s association with the BJP began in 1993 when he started as an RSS pracharak. In 2006, he moved to the BJP as Karnataka general secretary and his name too is doing the rounds along with several others flaunting their caste equations and younger age to get the top spot in the State.
Meanwhile amid the growing tussle between the BJP’s national leadership and the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh (RSS) about choosing the next chief minister of Karnataka, BS Yediyurappa, who belongs from the Lingayat community, has suggested that a non-Lingayat person be the next Chief Minister, clearly indicating that to keep his son Vijayendra Yeddyurappa’s future safe.
The Chief Minister in fact has also hinted that he might not continue for long. He had said that he would accept any decision taken by the BJP high command after July 26, when his government completes two years. The message from the Central leadership was expected on Sunday and BJP President JP Nadda announced that “there is no crisis in Karnataka”. But is this message a relief for the BS Yediyurappa? It is most unlikely.
BJP already has many issues and crises which are flying all over, including the upcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh early next year. Each step has to be taken with extreme caution by the party leadership especially in the State of Karnataka where the political regimes in the past have shown instability. With BJP President JP Nadda’s visit to Goa ended, his attention will now be on Karnataka to ensure that the transfer of power is smooth and there is actually “no crisis in Karnataka”.
