Thankfully, the nightmare of the 2nd wave appears to ebb! Our positivity rates continue to be high though, we are better, but we are certainly not out of danger; we still had 22 unfortunate deaths yesterday. In the larger picture nationally, we are still more than 1.3 lakh new cases a day and more than 3,000 deaths a day with a positivity ratio of 7%. We hold the dubious distinction of having the World’s Highest Share of New Cases Globally, at 54.1% (followed by the US at 47.3%).
I think therefore, it’s useful to locate clarity in strategy and actions on the vaccine, because it’s the vaccine that holds the key, out of this rut.
My Take: I’m honestly perplexed why we sat tight for 9 months, inspite of funds earmarked Rs 35,900 crores; And whilst we went on beating our drums, we’re the largest vaccine-makers in the world, we knew all along, our monthly vaccine-making capacities were just 8 crores (plus 2 from Sputnik V now) and an adult population of ninety crores to inoculate in six months. Then we have a children’s population of another 23 crores for whom we haven’t apparently quite thought through yet.
Starting from the Lancet, to the Supreme Court of India, we heard serious concerns about our “Vaccine Policy” over and over again. “Till Date We Haven’t Seen a Vaccine Policy” admonished the Court.
We said we would vaccinate our Covid and Frontline Champions first and then the “vulnerable” group which we defined as 45+ in age and we ran out of vaccines and then “opened up” the program for all adults asking States and hospitals to directly negotiate with international bigwigs in Pharma fixing up three different price levels for the same product and quite expectedly no results to show. None of the global giants would even talk to States “It’s the centre we’ll speak to!” they rebuffed. So, the Vaccine Curve plummeted. Our current speed is 15 shots per 100 people till date where the global average is 25. UAE is the best in class with 133. (Converts to 34 crores a month, our levels). Whereas Lancet stated there were two bottlenecks with our vaccine program, viz, supply and distribution into the rural interiors, “It’s arbitrary and Irrational” thundered the top-court. So, egged on by the Court, we said alright, we will vaccinate everybody by December. Now, that means 1 crore jabs a day (30 crores a month) July to December. (We have done just 3.3 % fully inoculated till date). But we saw it is possible; UAE did it, the key lies in sourcing, in distribution, in public participation and in governmental priority.
In my lay-man’s thinking, a vaccine is not the simple injection it looks to be. There is technology, there are manifold trials, experimentations and documentations, there are approvals, there are studies on after-effects and mitigations, legalities and so on. Today’s world involves inclusion, you have to be pluralistic, inclusive, take professionals and knowledgeables along, learn from them and enrich yourself. The expressions of Atmanirbharta in my view, have to be read in this context. The sight of country after country, even small ones some directly, some through the International Red Cross coming up with aid for India with basics like oxygen, concentrators and ventilators was indeed a little nerve-wracking and seemed to be rapping somewhere on-the-knuckles for Atmanirbharta and I can almost visualize Leonard Peikoff in his refrain.. “To irrational principles one cannot be loyal. Ideas that are not derived from reality cannot be consistently practiced in reality” in “Objectivism: The Philosophy of Ayn Rand”.
My Recommendations:
1. I would walk the other way, for my policy. Vaccinate our 30 crores children (5 to 18) first. Their futures are at stake. They are exposed to infections the most – next only to COVID and Frontline Champions, with the third wave and the recent MIS-C looming sinisterly. Get the US vaccine tested for this (one is already cleared by them). Next, go for the 19-65 (approximately 70 crores) who are also exposed but who understand the risks of going unmasked and un-distanced. Next, should come the 66 and above (around 10 crores) it’s easier for them to restrict their movements indoors and lastly infants in their mothers’ arms, whose exposures can be easily controlled.
2.Source proper quantities, it doesn’t foul with Atmanirbharta. Take a clear position on the IPR. The silver lining is the Pfizer, Wockhardt, Biological-E, Haffkine-Covaxins and Zydus vaccines hopefully coming in soon. Prioritise the rural poor, the migrants and recognise the “digital divide”.
3.The program should be entirely sourced and funded by the Centre. Leave it to States only to dissipate so as to reach the last-mile. Rather than pricing, it is the LAST-MILE OUTREACH which, in my view, is more important.
4.Communication: Constant confabulations on widening and shortening of gaps between doses and finally public statements of possibilities of no 2nd dose at all, mixing vaccines with each other etc, are too technical a subject to be debated in public on evening news-channels. These are playing spoilers and are breeding reluctance on the lay-citizens’ minds who might be doubting real intentions. The most scientific option should be the one, that’s it. The “Tika Utsav” in Goa earlier this week, evoked hardly a good response – where the positivity rate is still 22% and hardly 6% have been full-vaccinated so far!
And in conclusion: I think vaccination by itself, is a strength which this country inherently had, it vaccinates 10 crores of infants and little ones each year on mandated inoculation schedules, it’s home for us, we should not be seen shaking… “objectivism” like in Rand’s thoughts; I think is the key!
(Binayak Datta is a Finance Professional)
