India, despite its claim of being on the road to becoming a major global economic power, is actually reeling under a severe epidemic of joblessness with over 113 million people out of about 748 million people in the 15 to 60 years age-group “seeking or are available for work”, according to Census 2011 data released in September 2014. This huge number shows that around 15 per cent of India’s working age population is unemployed. The number of young people between 15 and 24 years age group who are out of work, is around 47 million out of the total 113 million jobless people.
These unemployed people are distributed over nearly 70 million families or households. That’s about 28 per cent of all households in the country. By categorizing persons as ‘seeking or are available for work’, Census has differentiated them from those who are not in the job market, which include housewives, students and others.
This appears to be an all-time high for Census years. In 2001, about 23 per cent of households had members that were unemployed. Within a decade, this had risen to 28 per cent. In the past five years, no particular spurt in employment growth or policies that would catalyze job creation have emerged and the situation continues to be dire. There seems to be no hope that unemployment levels are likely to come down, even slightly, in the near future.
Political economy analysts are of the opinion that the number of unemployed persons is actually more than 113 million because the census data is in terms of how many people per household are seeking or available for work, and the highest number in that is ‘more than 4’. For the purpose of the present computation, this has been taken as four persons only.
There has been a distinct shift in the employment pattern since 2001. In most states, and nationally, the situation is relatively better in urban areas than rural. Nationally 23 per cent of urban households reported that they had at least one member unemployed while in rural areas this share went up to 30 per cent. In 2001, the difference was not so much. The reason behind this is said to be the deep agriculture crisis.
The present NDA government at the onset of its rule had announced reviewing of skill upgrade plans for India, and had set a new target to get 400 million Indians skilled by 2022. But the experience till now has not been very encouraging as, according to a survey report by the Labor Bureau, joblessness was high even among skilled workers. The report said that among those who got formal training in establishments like Industrial Training Institutes or other skill centers, the unemployment rate was high – at 14.3 per cent – compared with 2.6 per cent overall.
In a revealing breakdown of skills and the corresponding rate of unemployment, the survey found that except for a handful of trades like leather work, plumbing, motor driving and tour/travel operations, all other categories of skilled persons exhibited double-digit unemployment figures. Some of these are shocking: over a quarter of those who had done engineering diplomas other than in civil and computer-related fields were unemployed. Nearly 17 per cent of those with textile-related training and over 14 per cent with machine operator skills were without jobs.
Experts point out that unless new jobs, especially in the manufacturing sector, are created, imparting skills to millions will not solve the problem. Imparting skills will help marginally, but the primary thing is to have a policy for industrial growth that will create millions of new, decent job opportunities. According to experts, about 12 million people join workforce every year in India, but analysis of job growth over the past nearly two decades show that on an average, only 5.5 million new jobs have been added every year in this period.
Labor Bureau data shows that unemployment rates are higher among those with higher educational qualifications. While the overall unemployment rate was reported at 2.6 per cent among the over-15 age population, for postgraduates it was 8.9 per cent, for graduates 8.7 per cent and for diploma or certificate holders, 7.4 per cent. Experts believe that this could be because qualified persons seek better wages and hence may remain unemployed for a longer period while seeking the best options. Also, industrial employers often prefer to employ worker with no formal training but adequate experience over say ITI products, again because of wages issue – the decision is more commercial one than a skill issue.
The average daily wages of an urban diploma holding worker was about Rs 524 for men and Rs 391 for women, according to a NSSO report. Men who have studied up to senior secondary make 45 per cent more and women 28 per cent more. But compared to graduates, the diploma holder will get 56 per cent less if male and around 54 per cent less if female. This gives an indication of how employees will make choices, and may also hint at families making educational trajectory choices.
Interestingly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in April this year, launched ‘Stand-up India’ initiative, saying it will help create entrepreneurs who will provide jobs as the government cannot continue to be the sole employer. As per the main feature of the new scheme, each of the 1.25 lakh bank branches all across the country are required to provide a financial loan to a woman and a Dalit or a tribal to set up a business. The programme is part of the government’s financial inclusion drive and is expected to benefit over one crore entrepreneurs, especially among the Dalits and the tribals.
(The writer is a freelance journalist)
