It’s already August, two months of the monsoon have gone by, but the rainfall is still far from the normal for the period. After some dry spells during June and July, it rained heavily sometime in mid-July for about three days and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast more rain in the following days, but it hardly rained and as the State heads towards the next half of the monsoon, it is definitely facing a deficit monsoon this year with the rainfall about 24.16 percent less than the normal for this period.
According to the IMD website, and its daily weather report, till July 31 the rainfall recorded in Goa was 1415.3mm, against the normal for this period which is 1866.4 mm, resulting in a shortfall of -451.1mm leading to a negative departure of about 24.16 percent from the normal. That should be a cause for concern, given that Goa depends on the monsoon for much of its water needs throughout the year ahead. For the period of one week from July 20 to July 26, the IMD data was showing a -38 percent departure from the normal, which means it hardly rained during those seven days.
It has been an unusual monsoon so far. Bright sunny days and cloudless skies are not the usual July weather that Goa experiences. Take July 31 for instance the maximum temperature was 31.8 degrees Celsius, which is 2.8 degrees above the normal, while the minimum temperature was 25.4 which is 1.2 degrees above the normal. Throughout the month the temperature has been consistently above the normal.
June and July are normally the months when the skies open up and the rains keep the land wet with no dry spot anywhere. But that hasn’t been the case this year. Except for a few days in the last two months, the usual water logging on the roads has only been experienced on those days when there have been some heavy showers, which have come sporadically. Besides, the maximum temperatures have stayed above 31 degrees Celsius on quite a few days, while many umbrellas have been unfurled to ward off the sun, rather than to stay dry.
There is no denying that in 2017, Goa is seeing a marked change in the monsoon pattern and the average rainfall is already far behind the normal for this time of the season. While it is at -24.16 percent less than the normal in the State, the forecast for the coming days is of a few spells of rain across the State. As Goa has crossed the halfway mark of the monsoon season period, it requires more the a few spells of rain to make up for the deficit that has already set in, especially since the State gets the bulk of its rain in June and July, with August and September adding just a little to make up the total of 100 inches. The monsoon fishing ban will be lifted from August 1 and later this week, the first harvest feast will be celebrated in Raia, and from then on the rains are usually on the decline.
No doubt the State has crossed the 50 inch mark already and gone beyond that figure, but the amount of rain is still not enough. As on July 21 last year, Goa was at a surplus rain of 16 percent. Last year, which was a good monsoon year, Goa, in June and July had received 2472.28 mm of rain and then in August and September got just about 1553.19 mm, to cross the 150 inch mark for the season. While the rainfall picked up slightly in mid-July, the week from July 6 to 12 was pretty bad, with the deficit in North Goa for that week being -44 percent and for South Goa standing at -29 percent.
This year, Goa is far behind the normal rainfall, and the unlikely weather that the State has been experiencing has become the most-talked subject across the State, with the question being asked is whether the change in weather is fuelled by the climate change pattern or is merely an aberration. While it is difficult to say so for certain at this point of time, and perhaps answering this question would be it as unpredictable as the weather, but even a cursory glance at the rainfall statistics of the past few years shows that the weather pattern has been changing.
In April IMD had forecast a near normal southwest monsoon. The actual forecast said, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is “likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.” The forecast assessment suggested 38 percent of probability for a near normal monsoon. So far in the season, it does not appear to be so.
As the weather pattern in Goa changes there is need to bring about some changes in the development patterns so that the rainfall and temperature departure from the normal is not so varied that it can affect normal living conditions. The reality of climate change is being experienced here on a daily basis and this is what Goa has to avoid, as it joins the rest of the world in doing its bit to stall climate change.
Across the globe there are reports emerging or rising sea levels, of melting glaciers and of high temperatures, that annually set a new record. These are all signs of climate change and Goa’s unusual monsoon cannot be ignored against the changes elsewhere.
It becomes imperative that the Paris Agreement on climate change, which aims at keeping the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by reducing carbon emissions, is implemented at the earliest. Even as this column was being written came in news that in Siberia between 2006 and 2016 over 80,000 reindeer died of starvation as the fluctuation in temperature led to the formation of a layer of ice on ‘lichen’ which is what the reindeer eat.
While it is reindeer today, change in temperatures and the climate will lead to disease, even new disease that will affect humans. The time to act, therefore, is now.
(Alexandre Moniz Barbosa is Executive Editor, Herald)
