The victory of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) at the Delhi assembly elections was predicted. However, such a commanding outcome with a 54% vote share and 90% of the assembly seats cannot be explained only by the freebies, better termed as welfare measures and a confident party leadership consistently harping on development and delivery of services to citizens. In today’s age of communications, it is work coupled with spectacular publicity through multi-faceted media that secures the prime position in the political market. The current victory pinnacle is despite the odds of incumbency, an unfriendly governor, a hostile Central government and the BJP election campaign overflowing with vitriol and hate.
It was irresponsible campaign by the BJP top brass with trading of words terrorists, Pakistanis, anti-nationals, ‘Goli Maaro’ against the political opposition.
The Election Commission of India stepped in providing lip-service but offered no significant deterrence. In hindsight, this could be the collateral contribution of the BJP to such a feat of AAP. Otherwise, it could have been a close finish for AAP. The BJP’s communally loaded campaign and the chilling citizenship agenda took AAP to the doorsteps of a resounding victory.
The 2019 parliamentary elections saw a clean sweep by the BJP winning all the seven constituencies of Delhi with a towering 54% vote share. The Congress emerged as first runner up in all with 24% share. AAP was relegated to third position with a vote share plummeting to 17%. The just concluded assembly elections saw Congress drawing a blank in terms of seats and the vote share dipping to 4%. This means that the AAP cannibalised into the votes of both the national parties with major dent into the traditional Congress voters. The sympathiser vote block of BJP, not the core one, but those who align due to the “vikas” bugle might have switched towards AAP perceiving that the BJP is championing a divisive agenda. The minorities and depressed which constitute the traditional base of the Congress decided to press the AAP button being perceived as the front-runner. It is not that these voters have rejected the Congress. They perceive it as an intelligent choice to keep the BJP substantially away from the range of power to express their resentment against communal politics and strong solidarity with anti-CAA, NRC agitation. Otherwise, the comments of Arvind Kejriwal and the distance AAP has deliberately maintained on the controversial issues of Article 370, CAA, NRC offers no positive confidence to these sections. Despite the hands-off approach of AAP from the burning national issues, the people opposed to BJP politics had no alternative other than to pin their ballot in favour of AAP. Their clear agenda was to defeat the BJP and AAP happened to be the beneficiary.
Overall, the drizzle of votes in favour of AAP and the downpour in terms of seats provided the sought after relief to the people throughout the country from the politics of hate and the thundering clouds of communal animosity hovering all around. Despite the nil score of the Congress, the political soil today stands energised with a ‘feel good’ factor. From 2018 onwards, in the 11 general elections to the State assemblies, BJP could form the government in two States (Haryana & Arunachal), the rest put the non-BJP governments in power ousting the BJP from four states.
It was 2014 which witnessed the spectacular emergence of the BJP at the Centre rendering the opposition sterile and almost impotent. In 2019, this right-wing party single-handedly bagged over 300 seats with a 37% vote share. These results shocked the discerning minds being an offshoot of muscular cultural nationalism. There seemed to be no negative impact of demonetisation, GST implementation, economic slow-down and farm sector crisis. Narendra Modi’s BJP with a purse like never before and a well oiled party organisation successfully converted the 2019 general election into almost a Presidential type. Juxtaposed against a divided opposition and a lacklustre Congress, the ‘nationalist’ ideology got thumbs up from the electorate. Finally, the arithmetic of winning elections is first-past-the-post voting. The same mathematics holds good in Delhi polls. If the Congress party had retained its vote share, the gains would have accrued to BJP. Voting statistics reveal that around 31 seats which AAP won, the margin was less than 15000. If the BJP had to be defeated in Delhi, then, in the prevailing game of numbers, the Congress had to lose.
It would be foolish to view the Delhi results as having shaken the foundations of Modi magic and BJP. Both still continue to be on strong foundations and will mercilessly pursue their questionable ideology. The results provide motivation but cannot be taken as respite. Neither the Delhi results can be taken as a referendum against the CAA, NRC and the rejection of such agenda which destroys Indian constitutionalism. The thumping victory of AAP in Delhi also could not be taken as heralding the re-beginning of this party in other States with its governance model. AAP has sufficiently burnt itself through its expansionary plans. It may now attempt to graze in States where there is substantial decline of the Congress coupled with the disenchantment of the electorate with the grand old party for its dormant organisation.
The BJP left no leaf unturned to demonise the Muslims and make the life of protesters miserable. BJP considered dissent at Shaheen Bagh, JNU and Jamia Islamia or wherever as affront against the nation. Their leaders were vocal with arrogance exhorting their faithful to foment violence. AAP chose the path of silence. None of their leaders stood up for free speech, dissent and the right to protest. This also needs to be remembered along with their victory.
(The writer is an educationist and political commentator).
