The results of the semi final round would be out by tomorrow. They would have serious impact on the final round in 2019. Though five States have gone to the polls, the central State of Madhya Pradesh is the most coveted. It is in the Hindi heart land – a part of the BIMARU India. It reflects the country’s agrarian distress and a State where corruption defines governance. Unemployment has reached an all time high. The exit polls have given an indication of a tough battle in Madhya Pradesh. The three-way contest in Chhattisgarh has made the results unpredictable and the history of the incumbent being shown the door in Rajasthan has made predictions easy.
Whichever way the results go a few take always cannot be ignored.
‘Mandir wahi banayega’ lyrics reverberate at every election time since 1992. But in 2014 Narendra Modi made it a point to have a vikas narrative and avoided any reference to the Ram Temple. It was all about development and Gujarat model. But in 2018, the Temple at Ayodhya is again brought on the table. Polarising characters like Yogi Adityanath, Swami Paripoornand and Amit Shah have made the religious divide sharp in Telangana with a fond hope of its reflection in the other States. It is only expected that the Ram temple resonates more in 2019.
A clear takeaway of this round is that the Prime Minister is no longer a challenger who promised to eliminate corruption and bring back black money. He is any other incumbent who failed to deliver. Let us give the credit where it is due. He makes up for his failure by his oratorical skills. The defence is weaved around the past with bitter, sarcastic and caustic barbs against the Nehru-Gandhi family.
As the ruling party attempts to create a polarised polity even the Congress has been attempting to ward off a pro Muslim tag with a brand of soft Hindutva politics to beat the BJP at its own game. The Congress vowed to build the route taken by Ram in his exile, cow shelters in every Panchayat, commercial production of cow urine, opening of spiritual department and developing the Narmada parikarma. The great grandfather of the president of Congress refused to bend on the core principle of using religion for an electoral purpose . He was prepared to lose every election but not compromise on faiths that divide the country. It is a different countryside now, changed by massive mobilisation through the rath-yatras and hate against the minorities. It is in that context that the Congress has re-calibrated their electoral tactics. Whether the optics created around Hinduism shall bring dividends would be known tomorrow. There is also fear that any electoral dividends may bring in the exit of the very idea of Congress. Everything being fair in love and war and when it comes to outdoing BJP even in elections also!
The next take away is that the Congress is prepared to share political space with arch-rivals. The TDP came into existence as an anti-dote to the Congress. But now, their alliance in Telangana appears to be on a firm footing. KCR (TRS) may emerge victorious but no longer has a walk over as he thought it would be at a time of recommending a premature dissolution of the house. Telangana shall only further the experiment of Karnataka where the Congress shared power with another arch-rival the JDS. BSP, SP and Trinamool, who have certain genuine grievances against the Congress due to it not sharing political space would be forced to have a rethink on political management.
Yet another takeaway, it appears BJP is getting ready for any eventuality. At an election rally the PM said West Bengal is fine with Mamata Banerjee, Uttar Pradesh has no problem with Mayawati and Akilesh but Congress has to be banished from the country forever. 2019 campaign is expected to be more bitter and on more sarcastic tone with further negativity towards the Congress and its president. Santosh Dessai MD and CEO of Future Brands says “…from a challenger then to an incumbent now, I have observed a certain defensiveness in Modi’s campaign speeches…. the overall negative tone of the campaign and the use of communal card are more pronounced”.
Prime Minister no longer talks of the Gujarat model. He is reluctant to bring on table his achievements for the last four and half years. Whether the benefits of demonetisation, price rise, farming crises, targeted attacks on Dalits and minority community or creation of jobs. The report card is dismal. Prime Minister has seized to be inspirational any more. That comes out clearly.
And the last takeaway comes from Gaddar the 69-year-old former Naxal sympathiser who embraced the democratic process. In his new avtar he claims to join electoral politics only to save the Constitution. He now feels that the ‘struggle’ requires a new strategy. He states “it is madness that is taking place in the country in the name of Desh bakti”. Chandrababu Naidu and Gaddar had a bitter past. He had been a vocal critic of Naidu’s rule. But in an attempt to rid the country of madness he embraced TDP and the Congress – an alliance of which he has been a star campaigner. As 2019 draws near the question is whether all those who profess by the Constitution and those who are on the other side of the political spectrum unite to save the constitution and the country in 2019. Gaddar has shown the way.
(The writer is practising advocate, senior faculty in law and political analyst)
