Even the most optimistic of those who were hoping for the political equivalent of India’s world cup victory over the West Indies in 1983, Gujarat couldn’t get themselves to saying anything more than that the BJP would win by a wafer thin majority in the face of a Congress upsurge. But even the most optimistic of this optimistic brigade would have ever expected that the Congress would run the BJP so close.
Let’s face facts. The BJP winning Gujarat is not a game changer or a script changer. And this is because of a very simple science. The size of anti-incumbency and caste alienation was large enough to bring down the BJP from the high of 2014, through a mix of the Congress surge and the timely and massive help of outsourced caste leaders (Jignesh Mewani, Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakur), who went by the acronym JHA. This reduced the BJP tally to a just under a hundred.
The relief in the BJP, including Prime Minister Modi was palpable, a relief which made him gloss over Himachal Pradesh, in what clearly was his Gujarat victory speech. And yet, he will, only because he is astute and understands ground level politics, like a lion does of the grasslands of Africa, know of what he has lost as much as what he has won.
The BJP’s vote share in 2017 has fallen below to its 2007 mark. From 49.12% in 2007 it went up to 48% in the 2012 Assembly elections before reaching an all-time high during the Modi wave in 2014 when it got 60% before falling to 49.1% in these elections.
The Congress from a low of 33% in 2014 has a 41.4% vote share in 2017.
While elections are all about winning and losing in the first past the post principle, politics is also about undercurrents and nuances, And this is something that the BJP will have to work on internally.
The Congress has a lot to write home about. It has got more than a foot in the door, especially in Kutch and Saurashtra and the North. It is only central and urbanised areas which saved BJP the blushes. This can be interpreted in two ways. The urban areas may have been angry with the BJP but the Hindutva and the son of the soil asset that Modi is, triumphed over all else. Remember the campaign slogan coined by those who were angry but still voted for the BJP – Hum Naraz hain par gaddar nahin (We are angry – with the BJP – but we are not traitors). The other interpretation could be that vast parts of rural and backward Gujarat, especially dominated by farmers, demonetisation affected lives and livelihoods. The BJP and the Prime Minister have however analysed the slump in these parts of Gujarat as a result of Congress’ caste polarisation.
The Congress has quite a few takeaways from this, the most important of which is that it will participate in the Gujarat Assembly as a real opposition.
But the broad political takeaway assumes more significance. And it is simply this. The Indian voter is aspirational. He wants a better quality of life. He wants jobs and security. And that doesn’t change from Gujarat to Goa. A government which cannot deliver on people’s aspirations centered around quality of life and living will lose votes and seats. Whether it loses its government will depend on how rapid and how deep the rot is. The BJP, in Gujarat, due to its overwhelming majority in 2014 was able to stem the slide and keep its head above water. And the Congress gained because it was accepted as the main opposition. There are lessons in all this is Goa. Delivery and performance is all important.
