The BBSM’s decision to take its severe opposition to the ruling BJP for not scrapping grants to schools imparting primary education in English, to its extreme logical conclusion, fielding candidates in as many as 35 constituencies against the BJP, is indeed the strongest jolt for the ruling party. If anything this actually is the most serious challenge to the BJP in the run up to the 2017 elections.
The BBSM is not even a political party. It was perhaps not even a political force. But not withstanding the clear injustice of denying parents the freedom to chose the medium of instruction for their child, without taking anything away from those who want to impart education in the mother tongue, the BBSM caters to a very committed socio-political, educated and religious constituency, which constitutes the core of the BJP’s traditional vote bank. As a ball park figure if we assign about 1000 votes each in about 25 constituencies which are language votes of the BBSM, it is likely to have serious impact on seats which the BJP won by narrow margins in 2012. With anti-incumbency firmly set in, it is unlikely that in seats which the BJP won by less than 2000 votes, there will be a marked improvement. And if we apply the BBSM factor in these seats, the BJP may end up losing all its sub 2000 victory margin seats only due to the BBSM factor.
Analysing the constituency-wise data of the 2012 results, there are 6 constituencies which the BJP has won by less than 2000 votes. Of this, in five of them the margin is less than 1500 votes. They are Tivim, St Andre, Mormugao, Cuncolim and Sanguem. In the sixth – Calangute, the BJP won by 1869 votes. In addition Mauvin Godinho of the Congress who expects to contest on the BJP ticket won his Dabolim seat by a mere 944 votes. If the BBSM fields candidates in even these seven seats, (or does a seat sharing with the MGP) the BJP is staring at a serious possibility of losing these seven. In Sanguem, Subhash Phaldesai edged past Yuri Alemao by a mere 483 votes. Milind Naik won by less than 1000 votes in Mormugao.
In a very tight race, this could be key game spoiler. One must understand that the BBSM’s announcement of contesting all 35 is a red herring. It needs to contest only 15 to be a spoiler in about 7, without winning a single one.
Apart from the BJP, the BBSM which has nothing to lose, has pushed MGP into a tight corner. While the MGP has openly espoused BBSM’s cause, it now has to decide if the cause is big enough for them to snap ties with the BJP, which lest we forget, rules at the centre. The BJP’s best hope is to keep MGP on its side and then work on the BBSM at the highest levels of the Sangh Parivar, to ensure that the Bharatiya Bhasha Suraksha Manch, for whom the BJP, in opposition, took to the streets, during the earlier Congress rule, doesn’t become its proverbial albatross.
The elephant in the room for the BJP is not AAP, it’s BBSM.
