The decisive win of the Congress in Punjab was laid at the door of the alliance partner SAD. Bihar was seen just as a blip and Delhi an exception. After 2014, the BJP was seen as an incredible election wining machinery and in case it cannot win elections they had managed the art of stealing the mandate. After all in all political markets there are souls at sale (Goa is not an exception) A few weeks back alliance partners took pride preening themselves as being part of NDA. The emotional pitch and hard line polarisation may have brought consolation prize in Gujarat. But the writing on the wall was clear.
Look at the Rajasthan figures. In Ajmer the Congress nominee defeated a former union minister’s son by a margin of 84,414 votes where his father had won the seat by nearly 1.72 lakhs votes. In Alwar the Congress nominee defeated the state labour minister by nearly two lakh votes, a seat which the BJP had snatched by a margin of 2.84 lakhs votes in 2014. Despite a rebel Congress man gathering 40,000 votes, the congress nominee defeated the ruling party 12,976 votes. It can be said that the ruling party was thrashed. It must also be noted that the congress had gathered a perfect zero in 2014.
Normally a ruling party wins by-elections and local bodies elections as the state machinery is always at it’s command. And when these elections are lost, it is a clear signal to the party in power. After a stunning victory in Uttar Pradesh the ruling party was unable to maintain that shine at the local bodies election. With Siddharamaiah seen as a front runner in Karnataka it appears the build up to the 2019 general elections is changing the political landscape. The Shiv Sena and the TDP may not finally walk out of the alliance, but certainly they and other smaller parties have the gumption to make threatening noises.
The Congress ‘Mukth Bharat’ now appears to be a mirage. A few weeks back there were some who believed that the prime minister could advance general elections to have them coincide with the assembly elections with the states going to the polls by the end of this year, to deal with the anti incumbency which the state governments would face so that the states would get the advantage of the ‘Modi magic’. It was felt that the ruling party holds a sway in the Hindi heartland particularly UP and Bihar with the aid if Nitish Kumar. Having tasted the bitterness of the defeat in Rajasthan, it is now doubtful whether the ruling party would risk the possibility of the anger of the people in the states now rubbing on to the Prime Minister. In any case history has not been kind to them. What happened in 2004 amidst the India shining campaign is still fresh in the minds of the people.
2004 saw the rise of the UPA despite everything going good for the then ruling party. The only thing that went against was that the ruling party was seen as the party of the rich and it now appears that Arun Jaitley has learnt certain lessons. 2014 was the resurgence of the aspirational middle class which saw dreams being built over ‘ache din’. The three and half years have clearly demonstrated that the country has increased its billionaires while the marginalised have been pushed further to the margins. The Gujarat and Rajasthan by-elections have a clear lessons for the country which of course has been picked up by the finance minister in positioning as pro poor, pro rural but nothing tangible for the middle class. The Modicare assuring 5 million people in one go finally turned out to be a jumla with no financial allocation for the world’s largest health scheme.
On the other side the Congress party which have been at the receiving end so far sees a ray of hope. Based upon strong local leadership of Sachin Pilot, the Congress party won majority bye elections to zilla parishads, Panchayat samities municipal wards after the 2014 rout. The Punjab victory can certainly be attributed to Captain and if in Karnataka it is seen as a front-runner, it is due to the local leadership provided by Siddharamaiah and nobody is prepared to talk of a victory unless Jyotiraditya Scindia is declared the CM candidate – Sachin Pilot has also been in election mode ever since he took over. Dharnas, gheraos, rallies and padyatras have been his hallmark and people endeared to that fighting spirit.
Despite a stellar performance in Goa and subsequent loss in the rat race to power, the Congress in Goa went camatose in their bunt to be in power. Can the Congress in Goa take some lessons from the young Sachin Pilot or will the central leadership give somebody to pilot their destiny? It is now extremely clear that the key to success lies in encouraging young local leadership. Alpesh Thakore, Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani have provided a clear answer-that the young of this country have realized that the politics of polarisation does not work.
The Dakshinayan conference at Nagpur brought Rajmohan Gandhi – the great grandson of Mahatma and Prakash Ambedkar the grandson of Babasaheb on one platform. They came together to prepare the country to save itself from the destruction of its democracy itself post 2019 credit for bringing them together must go to Modi!
Whether the opposition can seize the opportunity or the country shall be led to the path of the TINA factor is question – answers for which may come from Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh.
(The writer is practicing advocate, senior faculty in law and political analyst).
