The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerged as a political disruptor in 2013, winning 28 out of 70 seats in its debut Delhi Assembly elections. The victory marked a new era in Indian politics, fueled by anti-corruption sentiments from Anna Hazare’s movement. Despite forming a government with Congress, Arvind Kejriwal’s tenure as Chief Minister lasted only 49 days. His resignation, citing the inability to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill, paved the way for the historic 2015 elections, where AAP secured a staggering 67 seats.
Fast forward a decade, Delhi finds itself at a critical juncture. With corruption allegations looming over AAP and Kejriwal’s resignation in September last year following the alleged liquor scam, this election is a litmus test for the party’s survival and relevance in national politics. Kejriwal, now campaigning vigorously, aims to regain public trust through promises like the ‘Pujari Granthi Samman Yojana’ and ‘Mahila Samman Yojana.’
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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has left no stone unturned in its campaign. PM Modi, the party’s star campaigner, has targeted AAP relentlessly, branding it “AAP-DA” and accusing Kejriwal of turning his official residence into a “Sheesh Mahal.” The BJP’s strategy hinges on exposing AAP’s alleged corruption, especially as key leaders like former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh face legal troubles.
The BJP’s vote share in Delhi has consistently exceeded 32% over two decades. Its dominance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where it won all seven seats in Delhi, is a significant morale booster. However, its failure to translate this into Assembly victories highlights the uphill battle in a state where AAP’s welfare schemes resonate deeply with the middle and lower classes.
For AAP, this election is not just about retaining power but also about safeguarding its image as a party born out of anti-corruption ideals. The narrowing vote share gap between AAP and BJP, from 22% in 2015 to 15% in 2020 , signals a tougher contest. AAP’s governance model, emphasizing education, health, and free utilities, remains its cornerstone. Programs like free bus rides for women and high budgetary allocations to education have cemented its appeal among slum dwellers and the lower middle class.
Yet, the corruption charges have dented AAP’s middle-class support base, a critical demographic in previous elections. Kejriwal’s ability to regain this trust while maintaining his core voter base will determine the party’s fate.
The Congress, once a dominant force in Delhi, has been reduced to a peripheral role. Its performance in this election could act as a spoiler for either AAP or BJP. While Congress’s weak position minimizes its impact as a direct contender, its ability to influence vote splits could tilt the balance on key seats.
The implications of this election stretch far beyond Delhi. AAP’s standing in the INDIA alliance, which seeks to challenge the BJP in the 2024 general elections, hinges on its performance. Kejriwal’s strained relations with Congress within the alliance add complexity to this equation. AAP’s victory would strengthen Kejriwal’s claim as a key national leader, potentially aligning more closely with regional heavyweights like Mamata Banerjee and Sharad Pawar.
Conversely, a defeat would be catastrophic, not just for AAP’s Delhi stronghold but for its aspirations as a national party. With Bihar elections on the horizon, the outcome in Delhi will influence alliance dynamics between Congress and RJD.
The BJP’s dual strategy; attacking AAP’s governance while showcasing its vision for a “world-class capital”, reflects its intent to capitalize on perceived vulnerabilities within AAP. Meanwhile, Kejriwal’s political acumen and his ability to adapt to changing narratives will be tested.
Interestingly, even if AAP secures a fourth term, questions loom over Kejriwal’s eligibility to return as Chief Minister due to Supreme Court-imposed bail conditions. This uncertainty raises the possibility of leadership shifts within AAP, with figures like Atishi emerging as potential successors.
Delhi’s elections have always been a microcosm of larger political trends. For AAP, it’s a fight for survival and credibility. For BJP, it’s an opportunity to end a two-decade-long drought in Delhi’s Assembly. And for the electorate, it’s a chance to define the direction of governance in the capital and beyond.
As Delhi heads to the polls, one thing is clear: this isn’t just an electoral battle; it’s a referendum on the promises, performances, and politics that have shaped the city over the last decade.
