MGP’s loss will hit Congress hard
The Congress has reason to be afraid. Very afraid. Beleaguered by dissentions across Goa, it’s almost certain failure of carrying its ally the MGP with it as a pre poll partner, is a setback with far more long term implications than it thinks.
In terms of seats the MGP has only two. In terms of leadership it just has the Dhavlikar brothers. But the potential dent it can do to the overall success of the congress goes beyond mere numbers. Well, even if numbers is what is takes, the congress is down by two seats since the Madcaim and Priol seats will be added to the BJP alliance once this is sealed.
But the biggest strength of this alliance is that in areas in North Goa and parts of the South east Goa, Ponda downwards, there is an overlapping hindu vote bank which will consolidate in favour of the alliance rather than be split down the middle. And nowhere will this be felt more strongly than in Ponda where the MGP is likely to field Lau Malatdar.
In neighbouring Bicholim, Valpoi, Poriem and other parts of the Rane fiefdom, there are pockets of MGP supporters who will veer away from the congress. This is all the more likely since the Dhavlikar brothers owe their political rise and existence to the Rane’s. Their parting of ways will undoubtedly move votes. With Venkatesh ‘Bandu’ Desai certain to take on Vishwajit Rane in Valpoi, the MGP votes add to Bandu’s kitty.
In Quepem, the Chief Ministers former PA Prakash Arjun Velip is certain to be MGP’s candidate against Babu Kavlekar, a seat which looks extremely vulnerable for the congress, while in Savordem, Arjun Salgaocar , the son of the sitting independent MLA Anil Salgaocar has been in talks with the Dhavlikar brothers. In an election which is so closely fought, even tiny vote shifts can cause the loss of a few seats. In a state where even one MLA can be a kingmaker, the ramification of the BJP MGP alliance takes different proportions.
The alliance also introduces the most important ingredient in Goas poll pourri- nuisance value. The MGP may be serious about three seats and will ask for ten and finally get six. It is very likely that beyond the sure shot ones, will be rebels from the congress, who will be denied tickets and will do nothing more than cut congress votes. If this causes damage even in two seats, it will be a further dent the Congress chances.
The congress needs to ask a few questions. Ruling parties with a fair chance of winning the next elections normally do not lose previous coalition partners, especially in a 40 seat situation. So what went wrong? Since the Dhavlikars are known to be personally loyal to the Rane’s, did the Rane’s take them for granted? Did junior Rane’s unbridled ambition of controlling seats in that area, as his own upset the Dhavlilars.
Also significantly the Congress thought that the Catholic vote bank in Salcette would be completely with the Congress on the issue of giving grants for primary education in English. With the vexed issue unresolved and with corruption, mis-governance and the regional plan fiasco looming large, Salcette will not be the region of deliverance in the manner it was before. The MGP’s loss will therefore be felt even more now.
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people’s edit
Elections and electoral
malpractices
Joaquim D’Souza
The 2012 Electionsin Goa was expected. But its announcement has left most contenders somewhat bedazzled and unprepared. The ruling dispensation and particularly their leader of the day realized a wee bit too late that promises of regularization of the illegal slums and what not, would no longer cut any ice, since his treachery to the ethos and ethnicity of his State by providing second ration cards and Epic cards to his imported vote banks have already made these so confident as to demand a quota of seats inclusive to that of his fiefdom. So too late in the day, he decided to create 220 posts in his Department and has similarly permitted the creation of posts in other departments in his usual goody-goody brotherhood in chicanery. The initial latitude displayed by the State EC authorities might have provided an impetus to the misadventure of the smart alec idea of back-dating appointment letters and appointments. Apparently the main server at the Government Secretariat had the date changed. This was a simpleton arrangement since the outward numbers of all other departments will show an older date in the electronic outward as compared to the confirmatory signed paper letters. Talk about leaving a long paper trail of paper evidence! The Certificate of Posting in Department of Posts and the Outward and Inward of Government communications is blindly accepted as evidence in Courts.
What has taken place at the Secretariat Server is a very serious crime and the CEC should refer it to CBI for further enquiry, besides debarring the guilty person(s) who forced the Operator. A total of 600 appointment letters and 160 appointments have now been stayed operation by the CEC.
Justice done? Definitely not, since the tepid staying of job offers only conveys to the beneficiaries that the montris have given them the Government jobs with effect from the date of declaration of results. It must be understood that the high paying Government jobs with their security and pension benefits are much sought perhaps as much as MBA managerial positions.
Accordingly, besides the immediate family, friends and relatives of the beneficiary will be obligated to the concerned Minister who provided the job. At the very least a job offer, even with late joining time will assure at least 20 votes. The simple arithmetic translates to goodwill returns of not less than 15200 votes. This will alter the results in at least 10 Constituencies. Is the Election Commission willing to permit such a blatant miscarriage of the elections in Goa? If not, it is important that all 760 job offers and appointments be cancelled totally leaving it to the new elected Government to decide if at all these surplus posts in over-staffed Departments were required in the first place.
