A party borne out of the frustration of not being able to get its way, and force the ruling party, to change its decisions on educational grants, cannot normally be expected to change the political course of the next elections. But what the Goa Suraksha Manch, the new born political baby of the Bharatiya Bhasha Suraksha Manch will do, is become the go to place for a section of disgruntled BJP workers and other hardline RSS workers, this eating into the committed vote bank of the BJP. And this is a worry which can be tabulated and counted, and is therefore not a notional threat.
The parivar cadre, due to its organisational meticulousness, had done an exercise towards the end of last year, before the BBSM became the political threat it now is, had identified about 16 to 18 seats which are “locked” in favour of the BJP. These seats, according to the BJP, were anti-incumbency proof and had enough strength to see the BJP through in the toughest of circumstances. The number of these safe seats has been realistically pruned down. But the logic for marking these seats absolutely “safe” took into account the committed BJP and organisational votes in those seats which would make BJP cross the line. The absolute fall out with the BBSM (which took in its wake the RSS cadre lead by Subhash Velingkar) has created a fissure in that treasure chest of votes. And while this may not spell DISASTER, it isn’t a passing cloud either.
The impact of the BBSM finally giving shape to the Goa Suraksha Manch, will have an interesting fallout. The BJP will be forced to consolidate seats where it will have to be dependent on independents who they will back, especially in Salcete and then bank on the multiple splits of the opposition vote, mainly between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party. The Chief Minister’s recent statements on the Medium of Instruction issue, have, in fact, resonated with what the FORCE (Forum for the Rights of Children in Education) has been saying – freedom to chose the language of instruction to be given to parents.
Politics makes irony its comfortable bed fellow and the biggest irony of the 2017 elections will be the BBSM and the BJP contesting each other with the BJP actually espousing the choice of parents choosing the medium of instruction for their children. This would have been unthinkable in the past.
Chief Minister Parsekar, has however said that the new party will not take BJP’s votes away. However there is no evidence, not even voices of locals independently collected, to suggest that this possibility can be ruled out. The BJP though, now has its task completely cut out. On the organisation front, it needs to take on the “Velingkar army” at the booth level, because that is where the real battles will be fought. On the political front, its needs to seal, sign and deliver a water-tight alliance with the MGP, which is the only cushion the BJP has, against the Goa Surakhsha Manch inflicting a lot of damage. And on the political diplomacy front, all it has to do is see that the AAP grows in strength in areas the BJP is not hoping to win, to damage to the Congress and help the BJP backed candidates.
But whatever said and done, if the ruling dispensation has to resort to political managing and electoral arithmetic, the ground has indeed slipped. To BJP’s fortune, none of the opposition parties can lay claim on the space vacated by the BJP, with certainty or impunity, just yet.
