In a result that all the exit polls got wrong and that caught most pollsters unaware, the Bharatiya Janata Party retained Goa winning exactly 50 per cent of the seats, just one short of a full majority. The hand has lost its wave. It may wave again some other day in some other year, but for now the lotus has been re-born, in a result that few believed could have been possible. The exit polls that had predicted a photo finish and no party coming close to a majority were upturned by the BJP that grabbed at the opportunities presented to it. The poll results negated what many believed – that Congress was riding the crest of a wave.
But BJP worked, silently and diligently, and has reaped the benefits of a campaign that was well planned and well executed. As usual with the BJP, there was this battery of workers behind the scenes that turned around the party’s fortunes. Yet, the fears expressed during the last few months that the opposition vote would get split, giving the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party another shot at power, have rung true. The mandate can be read in no other manner but as a breakup of the votes. But the party has also managed to retain its vote share of 33 per cent, while Congress fell from 28 per cent to 24 per cent and as long as the BJP can hold on to that percentage of the vote share, it will not falter.
The BJP swept aside anti-incumbency, the principal factor that was supposed to work against the ruling party. On the other hand, the Congress that believed this factor had given them a head start in the race was unable to covert the sentiment into votes. Perhaps the electorate did not believe that Congress could bring about that desired transformation in governance. Perhaps it was also the string of defections by its MLAs that was an aspect that played in the minds of the people as they went to vote. They could not trust the Congress MLAs not to defect. When you look at it, of the 12 turncoats, nine lost and just three were returned to the Assembly.
The message that is clearly going out from the election result is that Goa wants continuity of governance. The electorate wants the BJP to stay on and govern for the next five years but the party can’t do it on its own. It needs the support of other MLAs to obtain a working majority in the House. With the opposition having fought the BJP, the crucial question was whose support will the party take to form the government? This question was answered just hours after the result, when the BJP itself announced that the three Independents and the two Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party MLAs-elect would support it in government formation, taking the headcount to a comfortable 25. With that number in hand, BJP has to now take the high ground and reject any defectors to bolster its numbers.
Two parties will be making their debut in the Legislative Assembly – Aam Aadmi Party and Revolutionary Goans Party. On the other hand it has not been the best of elections for the existing regional parties as MGP got just two seats and Goa Forward Party returned with only one. Both are down from their tally of five years ago, which does not bode well for local parties in Goa. For, though debutant RGP has got an entry into the Assembly, another national party, AAP, has managed to gain a foothold in the State, souring the party for the regional outfits, but still leaving space for Independents. Future electoral battles in Goa could be fought by only national parties.
