giving it as many seats and the seats it is aiming for? Its calculated risk of asking for Laxmikant Parsekar to be replaced as BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate, could either pitchfork MGP from a bit player to the status of almost the lead spoilsport of BJP’s party and a perhaps even lead player. Or it could push MGP into isolation and ignominy resulting in a deviation of the biblical story, one in which David does not defeat Goliath but loses heavily.
But MGP’s public announcement, by calling a press conference, and not through a remark made at a function or public meeting, makes it evident that this was a decision that the party had taken and wanted to announce. The precondition for the alliance, made by Deepak Dhavalikar, a minister in the Parsekar government, that the MGP will not ally with the BJP with Parsekar as the alliance’s CM candidate, is a deal breaker. And will the BJP revive the alliance by giving up on claims of two key MGP seats Bicholim and Dabolim, and allow the Dhavalikar’s run their departments freely, as their own fiefdoms? The chances of this happening are as bright as the BJP aligning with the Congress!
To elaborate this, the BJP does realise that if the alliance breaks at the eleventh hour, there will be a perception hit and will cause resultant damage in certain pockets. But apart from Madkaim, a seat they have conceded to the MGP, the BJP, actually a section of it which controls the party organisation, feels that all damage is controllable.
The ground reality though, may not reflect such supreme overconfidence, with a rider that the onus is now completely on the MGP to prove this over confidence wrong. The BJP’s almost dismissive attitude to the MGP can become a handle of confidence for their cadre, unless the MGP converts the bravado into shrewd electoral bandobast (strategy). In the BBSM (and its political entity the Goa Suraksha Manch) it has a natural ally. They speak the same language – literally. From withdrawing grants for English medium schools to the MGP and section of the BBSM pushing for Marathi as the second language, the two parties have more in common than any other political combination. If the BBSM which claims to have moved the cadres of the ABVP and the Yuva morcha away from the BJP, under the tutelage of BBSM boss Subhash Velingkar, decides to back the MGP, by cutting down its own electoral ambitions to the bare minimum, the MGP could be in business.
Also let’s accept this. The BBSM (GSM) is not really choosing candidates who confirm to the solemn ideological commandments of the party. The decision to admit Shyam Satardekar, former Congress MLA of Quepem and probably gift him a ticket soon, is a case in point.
However, there is a rider. Much of what happens in Sudin Dhavalikar’s political life these days is affected by a man called Nitin Gadkari (Union Minister) and to an extent by Manohar Parrikar. As a political trader, Dhavalikar looks only at return on investment. And he has politically invested in Mr Gadkari, in order to get massive PWD projects into Goa, knowing fully well what mammoth contracts mean, with his own links with the business of road contracts very well known. And let us also not forget that under Manohar Parrikar, Dhavalikar has had a very free run with no interference from the Chief Minister. After his departure, working under Mr Parsekar, was, to put it mildly – “different” for the Dhavalikars.
Having said this, the only reason why a shrewd political investor would think of pulling out of the investment with the BJP, is if he sees an opportunity of not just creating the next government but also have an outside chance of heading it.
That possibility is still far-fetched but Dhavalikar is probably the only politician in Goa, willing to take a shot at the near impossible.
For the BJP, a quarrelsome Sudin Dhavalikar on the same side, is perhaps easier to handle than have him as a smiling opponent.
