Theresa May is back in 10 Downing Street, but considerably weakened and even bruised. She came to the Prime Ministership in July last year, after then PM David Cameron resigned following the Brexit vote. When she took over the mantle of Prime Minister, May had a majority in the House of Commons but, relying on polls, called a snap mid-term election hoping to get a stronger government. She didn’t get it, in fact she lost the majority that Cameron’s leadership had given the Conservative Party, but stays on in power propped up by the Democratic Union Party, claiming that the party she leads in the only one that has legitimacy to govern. On the other hand, Labour that did much better than expected under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn claim to be the real winners and were ready to lead a minority government, had May stepped down.
While May stays on at the helm for the present, political observers are not ruling out a change in leadership in the coming months. She is there in 10 Downing Street because at the present point of time nobody wants another election and the pro-Brexit group in the Conservative Party would not want to invite more trouble than it already has. But there has already been speculation of some senior Tory MPs considering launching a bid for the leadership. Should there be a leadership challenge, May would find it difficult to stay on after the disastrous election results.
The Hung Parliament at a time when UK should have shown itself to be united, that has already shaken up the economy with the pound falling and British companies taking a dive in the markets, won’t help the new government in its negotiations on Brexit. Almost a year after Britain voted to leave the EU, talks are yet to begin, and the expected date for the exit is about 21 months away, giving little time for a new government to plan its stand.
Hard, soft or cliff-edge Brexit, what’s it going to be? Too early to tell, though time is running out for May and her team to settle down and they have a long and tough task ahead. Brexit talks are set to begin in a week and the Tories will now have to take into consideration the views of the coalition partner and arrive at a consensus before it enters into deliberations with the European Union on the exit. May had wanted a larger majority to strengthen her in negotiations with the EU that have already been delayed by the snap election gamble that has failed to pay off. It isn’t a strengthened Great Britain that will sit at the negotiation table but a weakened May, facing the European Parliament’s chief negotiator on Brexit, Guy Verhofstadt, who has already called the election result an ‘own goal’.
The election result, besides the negotiations with the EU, has created another hurdle for May’s Brexit plans. From inheriting a 16-seat majority from Cameron, she now heads a minority coalition backed by a party giving her a wafer thin majority of two in the House of Commons, but she could face trouble when the Brexit plans go to the House of Lords, as she has promised a vote in parliament before the final deal is signed.
On the other hand, Britain’s political crisis could actually strengthen the European Union at the moment, as it puts a pause on any other nation harbouring ideas of leaving the union. It is the deal that Britain gets from the EU that will lead other member nations to take a decision on their membership of the union. And it is the same deal that the thousands of Goans in the UK will be awaiting to know what the future holds for them.
